粕类周报：市场情绪悲观，关注中美政策-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating", and the trading strategy suggests "oscillating" for single - side trading and "waiting and seeing" for arbitrage [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the reality of loose domestic soybean meal supply bring pessimistic market expectations. However, the current poor profit of domestic ship - buying is expected to affect the ship - buying progress, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on single - side trading. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino - US policies and South American weather in the later stage [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview 3.1.1 Supply - The outlook for soybean meal is bearish, while that for rapeseed meal is bullish. The estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season still has room for downward adjustment. Brazilian soybean planting has started smoothly, with a sowing rate of 11.1% as of October 14, higher than last year but lower than the five - year average. Domestic soybean inventories are expected to decline in October, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. Under Sino - Canadian trade policies, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink, but the opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In the short term, it is bullish, while in the long term, it is bearish. Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect future supply. Soybean meal has high cost - effectiveness and a high proportion in feed, but its downstream trading is light, while the downstream trading and pick - up of rapeseed meal are cautious [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The outlook for soybean meal is bearish, and that for rapeseed meal is bullish. Domestic soybean inventories have reached a high level. This week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the inventory days of feed enterprises also decreased. Domestic rapeseed inventories have dropped to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventories are being depleted, but the inventory level is still at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. 3.1.4 Basis/Spread - It is neutral [4]. 3.1.5 Profit - It is bullish. The profit of Brazilian soybean crushing has deteriorated, while that of Canadian rapeseed crushing is good [4]. 3.1.6 Valuation - It is neutral. From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively low valuation, while from the perspective of basis, it is at a neutral valuation [4]. 3.1.7 Macro and Policy - It is neutral. Recently, Sino - US trade sentiment has been volatile, and market sensitivity has decreased. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US meeting at the APEC Summit on October 30 [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - and - Demand Data of Meal Products 3.2.1 Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio - In September, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season increased, while that of global soybeans decreased. The inventory - to - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased [34][40]. 3.2.2 Planting and Yield - The sowing rate and excellent - rate data of US soybeans are presented, and the domestic crushing profit of US soybeans is declining [49][54]. 3.2.3 Trade and Import - This week, the US soybean export sales data was not released. Data on soybean CNF premiums, import soybean futures margins, Canadian rapeseed CFR prices, and import crushing profits are provided. The monthly import volume data of soybeans, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China are also presented [66][73][76]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Processing - Domestic soybean inventories are at a high level, soybean meal inventories in oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the inventory days of feed enterprises decreased. The inventory of imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal in major domestic regions is also presented. Data on the operating rate and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are provided [82][89][96]. 3.2.5 Trading and Consumption - The trading of soybean meal is light, but the pick - up is at a high level. Data on the trading volume, pick - up volume, and apparent consumption of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented. The monthly output data of feed are also provided [105][106][112]. 3.2.6 Breeding Industry - Data on the breeding profits, prices, weights, and slaughter volumes of pigs, broilers, and laying hens are presented [120][129][133].