2025年前三季度生猪产业数据的相关思考

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - 'Year-on-year' comparison has limited significance, and it's advisable to compare with the same period in 2023. The supply increase in 2025 compared to Q1 2024 was expected. The comparison with 2023 shows that the decline in quarterly pig存栏 has significantly narrowed, indicating a continuous recovery in Q3 2025. The pig出栏 and pork production have increased, and the sow存栏 has been above the normal level despite two consecutive months of decline [10][12]. - The current pig production capacity cycle has started the de - capacity process, but it has just begun. The breeding sector has been in the loss cycle for less than two months, and the sow存栏 is expected to be slowly reduced. A significant decline in sow prices is needed to enter the next price - rising cycle [13]. - The main trading logic of live hog futures this year is the bearish view of continuous supply recovery. After the bearish expectation is basically fulfilled, it is trading the basis - repair logic. In the short - term, the futures price is approaching the spot price. In the medium - term, the hog出栏 is expected to increase until Q2 2026, and the futures will repair the basis according to the spot trend. In the long - term, it is recommended to wait for effective de - capacity before trading the far - month contract's upward trend [16]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. 'Year - on - year' effective meaning is insufficient, focus on the comparison with the same period in 2023 - In Q1 - Q3 2025, the national production of pork, beef, and poultry increased by 3.0%, 3.3%, and 7.2% respectively, while mutton production decreased by 4.3%. The hog出栏 was 529.92 million, an increase of 1.8% year - on - year, and the pork production was 43.68 million tons, a 3.0% increase. At the end of Q3, the national hog存栏 was 436.8 million, up 2.3% year - on - year, and the sow存栏 was 40.35 million, down 0.7% year - on - year [3][4]. - Comparing with 2023, the hog存栏 at the end of Q1 - Q3 2025 increased by 2.3% year - on - year but decreased by 1.2% compared to 2023. The hog出栏 increased by 1.8% year - on - year but decreased by 1.3% compared to 2023. The pork production increased by 3% year - on - year and 1.56% compared to 2023. In Q3 2025, the hog出栏 was 163.73 million, a 1.2% increase compared to Q3 2023, and the pork production was 13.48 million tons, a 6.2% increase [10][12]. 2. Questions and Thoughts on the Pig Production Capacity Cycle Thinking 1: What stage is the current pig production capacity cycle in? - The previous report pointed out that the current pig price was in the second half of the second half of the epidemic - driven passive de - capacity cycle, and active/passive de - capacity had not started. Now, the sow存栏 has decreased for two consecutive months, indicating the start of de - capacity. The de - capacity has just begun, and the sow存栏 is expected to be slowly reduced. The breeding sector has been in the loss cycle for less than two months, and the ratio of sow price to hog price is still at 77%, which needs to drop to 50% - 60% for effective de - capacity [13]. Thinking 2: What is the main trading logic of live hog futures? - This year, the futures market mainly traded the bearish view of continuous supply recovery. After the bearish expectation is fulfilled, it trades the basis - repair logic. In the short - term, the futures price is approaching the spot price. In the medium - term, the hog出栏 is expected to increase until Q2 2026, and the futures will repair the basis according to the spot trend. In the long - term, it is recommended to wait for effective de - capacity before trading the far - month contract's upward trend [16].