Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - In October, the domestic soybean market is in the peak season of new - crop harvest and listing, with a temporary increase in supply. The demand is in the transition stage of turning prosperous. The supply - side increase is more obvious, and the price is under pressure. However, the market sentiment is not pessimistic, and the price decline space is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the risks of price decline caused by the exit of long - position funds due to the cooling of Sino - US trade policy game [3][7][8]. - In the short - term, the deterioration of Sino - US trade situation has driven up the futures price, and the price of Northeast China's soybean has stopped falling. But the new - crop supply factor will lead to price decline without policy intervention. In the long - term, the new - crop supply will be sufficient throughout the fourth - quarter market, and the 2511 and 2601 contracts may show a downward - trending shock. The far - month contracts have the potential to rise after reaching the bottom [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply - demand situation: In October, the new - crop soybeans are in the peak harvest and listing season, with a significant increase in supply. The demand is in the transition stage of turning prosperous, and the supply - side is more dominant, resulting in price pressure [3]. - Trading logic: In the short - term, the deterioration of Sino - US trade situation and the stable spot sentiment in Northeast China have driven up the price. But the new - crop supply may lead to price decline. In the long - term, the new - crop supply will be sufficient in the fourth quarter, and the far - month contracts have potential [7]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: The market is expected to fluctuate. The short - selling trend has changed, and the price faces pressure from medium - and long - term moving averages [8]. - Strategy views: For those with low - price inventory, consider short - selling the 01 contract on rallies. For planting entities, the 2511 short - hedging strategy should be closed when selling the spot [8]. - Basis, spread and hedging arbitrage strategy: During the new - crop listing period, the spot and futures prices may fall simultaneously. The spot price is at the bottom - grinding stage. The near - month contracts are more affected by the new - crop listing, while the far - month contracts may be supported by policy purchase and improved demand. Pay attention to the spread between near - and far - month contracts and consider the strategy of selling near - month and buying far - month contracts [8]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction for the 01 contract: The price range is predicted to be 3850 - 4000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.84% and a historical percentile of 15.3% [8]. - Risk strategy: For inventory management, planting entities can lock in profits by short - selling futures or selling call options. For procurement management, wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [9]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: The deterioration of Sino - US trade situation has led to some funds going long [10]. - Negative information: In October, the new - crop soybeans in Northeast China are in the peak listing season, putting pressure on the price. The quality and price of soybeans in different regions vary. Two domestic soybean auctions have failed [10]. 2.2 Next Week's Attention Events - On the 21st, Sinograin will hold a domestic soybean auction with a trading volume of 40,422 tons. Pay attention to the possible turning point of Sino - US trade situation, the trend of the US government shutdown, and the release of the US Department of Agriculture's October supply - demand report [11]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - volume and Fund Interpretation - Unilateral trend and fund movement: The soybean price has rebounded for the second consecutive week. In October, the deterioration of Sino - US trade situation has stimulated the price to rise. The main 01 contract has seen significant trading volume increase, with a gain of over 2% and closing at 4028 yuan. The registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 7290 lots, and the positions and trading volume have increased [11]. - Basis and spread structure: The spot price of domestic soybeans has stopped falling, while the futures price is relatively strong, and the basis has weakened. The 11 - contract is relatively weak, and the overall spread change is not obvious [18][20]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Planting end: The price of 39 - protein clean soybeans in Heilongjiang has rebounded, and the planting cost has decreased, resulting in increased planting profits. The grassroots may have a certain degree of reluctance to sell, which may prolong the price - bottoming time [27]. - Mid - stream: The willingness of trading enterprises to store soybeans has increased, but the profit is uncertain [27]. - Down - stream: The downstream demand is active, mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. High - protein soybeans are favored, and the price is firm. The crushing profit has rebounded, and oil mills may increase their purchase volume [27]. Chapter 5: Supply - demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - side and Deduction - Overall supply: In October - November, the supply will reach its peak, and the low point of the spot - futures price may form during this period. The price performance may be relatively mild due to factors such as low selling willingness and increased inventory - holding willingness of the mid - and down - stream [30]. - Supply structure: Affected by the promotion of high - oil varieties, the proportion of medium - and low - protein soybeans may increase. High - protein soybeans have mid - term competitiveness, and high - oil soybeans depend on the purchase volume of oil mills [30]. 5.2 Demand - side and Deduction - Demand factors: In October, the edible consumption market is turning from off - season to peak season, and the crushing demand may increase when the raw material price falls. The policy may activate the domestic soybean crushing demand, but there is great uncertainty [30]. - Market outlook: The edible market is the basic demand for soybeans, and the crushing market is the major variable. The overall price will fluctuate, and pay attention to the formation of the fourth - quarter low point and the price - decline risk caused by Sino - US economic and trade situation changes [30].
南华期货豆一产业周报：注意回调-20251020
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-20 06:31