A股市场缩量调整后或如何演绎？

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent volume contraction in the A-share market is a result of technical corrections in over - rising sectors, cautious market sentiment due to Sino - US relations and external uncertainties, and a slowdown in incremental funds. However, it is not a trend reversal. Policy and fundamental factors are expected to boost market confidence, and trading volume may gradually recover [7][8][10]. - It is recommended to continue focusing on two main investment lines: the non - ferrous metals sector and leading stocks in science and technology growth sectors such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Market Performance: Most major A - share indices rose last week, with the Shanghai 50 having the largest increase (weekly return of - 0.24%). Among major industries, the financial and energy indices performed relatively well (weekly returns of 1.91% and 1.63% respectively), while the information technology and telecommunications service indices performed poorly (weekly returns of - 6.70% and - 4.79% respectively). Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 4 industries rose, with banks, coal, and food and beverage having larger increases of 4.89%, 4.17%, and 0.86% respectively; electronics, media, and automobiles had larger declines of 7.14%, 6.27%, and 5.99% respectively [11][16][18]. - Trading Heat: The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 2192.852 billion yuan (previous value: 2602.982 billion yuan), at a relatively high historical level (93.40% of the three - year historical quantile) [21]. - Valuation Tracking: As of October 17, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A Index was 21.96, a decrease of - 0.51 from the previous week, at the 89.20% quantile of the past 5 - year history. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 4 industries saw valuation (PE_TTM) recoveries [26]. Market Observation - Analysis of Volume Contraction Adjustment: Last week, the trading volume of major A - share indices declined comprehensively, especially in small - cap and ChiNext and STAR Market sectors. The decline in trading volume was mainly due to technical corrections in over - rising sectors, cautious market sentiment caused by Sino - US relations and external uncertainties, and a slowdown in incremental funds, including cautious northbound funds, cooling margin trading, and increased shareholder reduction pressure [7]. - Positive Factors: The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee may bring continuous policy support in areas such as artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing. As the third - quarter earnings reports are intensively disclosed, corporate profit situations are becoming clearer, with 82.54% of the 126 companies that have released earnings forecasts reporting positive news. These factors may attract off - market funds to re - enter the market and increase trading volume [8]. - Investment Recommendations: Despite the volume contraction adjustment last week, it is not a trend reversal. It is recommended to focus on the non - ferrous metals sector and leading stocks in science and technology growth sectors such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence [10]. Economic Calendar - Domestic Economic Data: Key domestic economic data to be released this week include China's unemployment rate, year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods, year - on - year growth rate of quarterly GDP, 1 - year loan prime rate (LPR), and cumulative year - on - year growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment [28]. - Domestic Important Events: The National Bureau of Statistics of China will hold a press conference on the economic operation situation [28]. - Overseas Economic Data: Overseas economic data to be released include the year - on - year growth rate of US industrial output, unadjusted year - on - year CPI in the US, and Markit composite PMI [28]. - Overseas Important Events: Michael Barr, the Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve for Financial Supervision, will give a speech [28].