烧碱周报（SH ）：现货价格稳中有涨，盘面持续下跌-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly fluctuate [3]. 2. Report's Core View - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase, while the futures price is continuously falling. Supply, demand, and macro - policies are neutral; inventory is on the high side; profit and valuation are on the low side; and the basis is neutral [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: This week, maintenance decreased and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 26,000 tons to 830,000 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more of caustic soda was 81.4%, a 2.6% week - on - week decrease. Loads in various regions declined [3]. - Demand: Alumina production declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry decreased to 88.61%, a 1.02% week - on - week decrease. The comprehensive startup rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 0.63% compared to before the holiday. The monthly startup rate of lithium hydroxide in June 2025 was about 49.27%, and the overall production was basically flat [3]. - Inventory: Recently, the shipment pressure increased, and caustic soda inventory accumulated. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more was 403,300 tons (wet tons), a 4.25% week - on - week decrease and a 13.83% year - on - year increase. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 23.09%, a 0.33% week - on - week decrease [3]. - Basis: The current basis of the main contract is around 93, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. - Profit: The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 337 yuan/ton, a 16% increase from last week. The overall chlor - alkali profit increased this week [3]. - Valuation: The spot price is neutral, the absolute futures price is low, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - Macro - policy: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has subsided, and the futures market trades based on fundamentals [3]. - Investment View: The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. - Trading Strategy: There are no arbitrage or unilateral trading strategies at present [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - The futures market fluctuated within a range. The spot price in Shandong was stable with a slight increase, and the futures price reached a new low. The subsidy for liquid chlorine decreased, its price rose to 50 yuan/ton, and the chlor - alkali profit remained high. After the holiday, demand improved slightly, and restocking demand increased. In the future, the new maintenance of alumina will increase, and the supply - demand of caustic soda will turn to be loose, so the spot price is expected to be stable with a slight decrease [7]. - The total open interest increased, and the far - month contracts added positions [25]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Electricity Price: As the summer peak electricity consumption season approaches, the electricity price stabilizes [33]. - Upstream Production: Production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [36]. - Main Production Area Output: Maintenance in North China increased, and production decreased [39]. - Chlor - alkali Comprehensive Profit: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit decreased [40]. - Downstream Price: The alumina price declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [43]. - Alumina: Alumina production recovered, and inventory accumulated. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new plants, the production rate of alumina in Henan increased significantly. The supply - demand balance of alumina was restored, inventory accumulated, port bauxite inventory decreased, and alumina profit was good and remained stable year - on - year [55][56][66]. - Non - aluminum Demand: Non - aluminum production remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum entered the seasonal off - season, and production began to decline [67][68]. - Liquid Chlorine Downstream: The production rate rebounded [75]. - Subsequent Maintenance Information: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans in October and November [78].