集运指数欧线周报（EC）：宏观扰动及旺季预期先行，带动EC主力止跌反弹-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", specifically "oscillating weakly" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The EC of the container shipping index shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness due to factors such as the Gaza peace talks and the deterioration of Sino - US relations. The spot freight rate has a mixed impact, with price increases planned but also uncertainties. Political and economic factors are complex, including the progress of the Gaza cease - fire agreement, potential tariff adjustments, and diplomatic meetings. The supply of shipping capacity is neutral, with changes in weekly average capacity deployment in different months and overall loading rates lower than in previous years. The demand is also neutral, with a differentiation in loading rates among shipping alliances. The first round of price support in late October has initially stopped the decline, and the market has entered the second round in early November, with more price - support attempts in the next two months. However, future trends still depend on changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and the situation of empty sailings in November [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Influencing Factors and Their Impacts - Spot Freight Rate: It has both positive and negative impacts. In late October, the overall price increase was expected to be between 1800 - 2000, but finally landed at 1500 - 1800, and the price increase notice for November is around 2500 [3] - Political and Economic Factors: There are many uncertainties. For example, the implementation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement has core issues to be resolved, Egypt has suffered shipping losses due to Houthi attacks, the US may adjust tariffs, and there are diplomatic meetings to prevent the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war [3] - Shipping Capacity Supply: It is neutral. The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 305,000, 250,000 in October, 280,000 in November, and 290,000 in December. The overall loading rate is lower than in previous years [3] - Demand: It is neutral. There is a differentiation in loading rates among alliances. PA + MSC has a relatively low loading rate and a higher probability of price cuts, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [3] - Investment View: Oscillating weakly [3] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, it is oscillating; for arbitrage, it is on hold. Risks to focus on include geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - Spot Market: There are data charts showing the trends of European line index, US West line index, US East line index, and Mediterranean line index, as well as the spot quotes of Maersk's European line [6][7][8][9][11] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - Order Volume: There are data charts showing the order volume and new - order volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [14] - Delivery Volume: There are data charts showing the delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [17][19] - Demolition Volume: There are data charts showing the demolition volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [18][20] - Future Delivery: There are data charts showing the future delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities in different time periods [23][25][26] - Ship - Breaking Price: There are data charts showing the ship - breaking prices of container ships with different loading capacities and the new - building price index and its year - on - year change [30] - New - Building Ship Price: There are data charts showing the new - building price index and the new - building prices of container ships with different loading capacities [30][32] - Second - Hand Ship Price: There are data charts showing the second - hand ship price index and the second - hand prices of container ships with different loading capacities and ages [36][38][40][42] - Existing Shipping Capacity of Container Ships - There are data charts showing the total existing shipping capacity, the existing shipping capacity by loading capacity, the existing shipping capacity of ships over 25 years old, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, the average age, and the average age by loading capacity [45][46][48][49][52][54] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - Shipping Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports) - There are data charts showing the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, the shipping capacity deployment of PA + MSC, GEMINI, MSC, and OCEAN in different weeks [60][62][64][66][68] - Container Ships with Desulfurization Towers - There are data charts showing the number and proportion of container ships with installed desulfurization towers, the number and proportion of container ships being installed with desulfurization towers, the average age and duration of retrofitting desulfurization towers, and the average speed of container ships [71][74][75][77] - Idle Shipping Capacity - There are data charts showing the idle shipping capacity of container ships in terms of TEU, number of ships, and proportion, the idle shipping capacity by loading capacity, the hot - idle shipping capacity, and the shipping capacity of ships being retrofitted with desulfurization towers [79][80]