Huafu Securities·2025-10-20 06:42Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" [5][81]. Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is experiencing increased losses, leading to heightened expectations for capacity reduction, which may eventually push the long-term price center of pigs upward [2][41]. - In the beef sector, short-term prices are slightly declining, but a tightening supply is expected to lead to an upward price cycle for beef by 2026-2027 [3][46]. - The poultry sector shows stable prices for broilers, while egg prices are declining due to weakened demand post-holidays [4][51]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - In September, 17 listed pig companies collectively sold 14.14 million pigs, a month-on-month decrease of 6.62% but a year-on-year increase of 21.94% [2][12]. - The average selling price of pigs in September was 13.11 yuan/kg, down 5.87% month-on-month and 30.76% year-on-year [17][19]. - The average weight of pigs sold in September was 128.39 kg, an increase of 0.53 kg from the previous month [17][19]. Beef Industry - The price of calves and fattened bulls as of October 16 was 32.19 yuan/kg and 25.73 yuan/kg, respectively, with year-to-date increases of 33.51% and 8.89% [3][46]. - The supply of beef is expected to tighten in the medium to long term due to significant capacity reductions from previous losses [46]. Poultry Sector - The price of white feather broilers was stable at 6.87 yuan/kg, while the price of broiler chicks was 3.29 yuan/chick, reflecting a slight increase [4][51]. - Egg prices have decreased to 5.95 yuan/kg, down 0.90 yuan/kg week-on-week, with expectations for recovery driven by capacity reduction [4][51]. Agricultural Products - The price of soybean meal was 3,010 yuan/ton as of October 17, with a slight increase of 4 yuan/ton week-on-week, but the market lacks clear bullish drivers [4][64]. - The soybean meal market is currently characterized by supply pressure and support from import costs, with expectations for a prolonged bottoming period [64].