食品饮料行业周报（2025.10.13-2025.10.17）：食品饮料2025年三季度前瞻：白酒逐渐筑底，大众品茶咖连锁、量贩零食景气度延续，乳制品、餐饮供应链景气度改善-20251020

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the liquor sector is gradually bottoming out, with stable demand for banquet consumption, particularly for weddings, while business consumption remains under pressure. The high-end and mid-low price segments are performing relatively well, but the sub-high-end segment is under pressure. The prices of major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are currently under pressure, with Moutai priced below 1800 RMB and Wuliangye around 850 RMB [5][18] - The overall performance of the liquor industry is expected to decline, with most companies experiencing varying degrees of revenue drop, except for Moutai and Fenjiu [5][18] Summary by Sections Liquor - The impact of the alcohol ban in July and August affected normal consumption and sales, but this influence has gradually diminished since September. The sales during the National Day period showed a general improvement compared to previous months [5][18] - Price performance shows that high-end and mid-low segments are stable, while the sub-high-end segment is under pressure. Current prices for Moutai, Wuliangye, and Guojiao are under pressure [5][18] - For Q3, it is expected that except for Moutai and Fenjiu, other liquor companies will see revenue declines, with some experiencing a further drop compared to Q2 [5][18] Beer - Qingdao Beer is expected to see slight growth in Q3 due to a low sales base from the previous year, with a focus on fresh products and high-end items. The average price is also expected to increase slightly [6][20] - Chongqing Beer is facing pressure in high-end product sales, with expectations of flat performance year-on-year. New factory depreciation is anticipated to impact profits [6][20] - Yanjing Beer continues to grow due to its flagship product U8, with supply chain management and efficiency improvements driving profitability [6][20] Dairy Products - Yili is expected to face pressure in its ambient liquid milk segment, while milk powder and cold drinks continue to grow. Cost pressures are anticipated to affect gross margins [6][21] - Miao Ke Lan Duo is expected to maintain its revenue performance, with improvements in the B2B restaurant channel and highlights in the C-end family dining series [6][21] Soft Drinks - Dongpeng Beverage is expected to continue its steady growth in energy drinks, with new products showing higher growth rates. Profit growth is expected to slightly exceed revenue growth due to cost advantages [6][22] - Yangyuan Beverage is expected to maintain flat revenue, with increased promotional activities impacting gross margins [6][22] Food Supply Chain - Anji Food is expected to see positive monthly performance, with overall revenue growth projected in the mid-single digits year-on-year [6][23] - Qianwei Central Kitchen is expected to see stable growth in the B2B segment, while the small B segment remains competitive [6][23] Snack Foods - Wanchen Group is expected to accelerate store openings, with revenue and profit growth anticipated to remain high [6][24] - Salted Snack Company is expected to continue its growth trend, driven by successful product launches [6][24] Export Companies - The domestic pet industry continues to see strong growth, with companies like Zhongchong reporting better-than-expected growth in domestic brands [6][9] - Peti's export business is expected to continue its downward trend, while health product exports are expected to improve [6][9] Recent Mergers and Acquisitions - Mixue Group plans to acquire Fulu Family to expand its market presence and reduce logistics costs [6][27] - Yiyi Group is planning to acquire Gao Ye Family to enhance its domestic market presence and leverage existing channels [6][28]