Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Stock Index: With important meetings approaching, market policy expectations are rising. Coupled with the Fed still having room to cut interest rates this year, it will support the market. However, the KDJ indicator shows that the market index may adjust [10]. - Treasury Bonds: Yields of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds have declined. Overseas credit risks have led to a decline in risk appetite, and global bonds have temporarily improved. It is advisable to take partial profit during the risk - impact window. The Sino - US negotiation at the end of the month will be the key factor for future market risk appetite. If there is significant volatility in the next two weeks, appropriate band operations can be carried out according to positions. The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may adjust [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy Recommendations - Strategy Outlook: The stock index is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - Stock Index Trend Review: Last week, the weekly gains of all A - share broad - based indexes were negative, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indexes having the largest declines. Coal and banks performed well [10]. - Core View: High - level Sino - US exchanges and the upcoming important domestic meetings, along with the release of macro - economic data and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, will support the market [10]. - Technical Analysis: The KDJ indicator shows that the market index may adjust [10]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy Recommendations - Treasury Bond Trend Review: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.74%, 0.12%, 0.07%, and 0.01% respectively [11]. - Core View: Yields of interest - rate and credit bonds declined. Overseas credit risks affected the market, but the panic may be excessive. It is advisable to take partial profit, and the Sino - US negotiation is a key factor [11]. - Technical Analysis: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may adjust [11]. - Strategy Outlook: The bond market is expected to move in a volatile manner [11]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In September, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.4%. The improvement in supply and demand and the replenishment of raw material inventories supported the rebound, while the supplier delivery time and employment indexes slightly dragged it down. The improvement in domestic and foreign demand may be due to non - US capital goods orders, US Christmas - season restocking, and the downstream's more active raw material procurement after the upstream price increase [18]. 3.2.2 CPI - In September, the year - on - year CPI was - 0.3%, and the month - on - month was + 0.1%. The year - on - year PPI was - 2.3%, and the month - on - month was flat. The improvement in August's PPI was due to the base effect and the "anti - involution" policy. The year - on - year CPI was still negative, the year - on - year increase in core CPI expanded, gold jewelry and services were the main support for the year - on - year CPI, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed [21]. 3.2.3 Import and Export - In September, China's exports were $328.57 billion, imports were $238.12 billion, and the trade surplus was $90.45 billion. The sharp rebound in export growth in September was mainly due to the base effect and seasonal factors. The two - year average growth rate continued to decline, and the month - on - month growth rate was weaker than the average from 2018 - 2023, indicating that the export performance was not that strong [22][23]. 3.2.4 Industrial Enterprise Profits - In August, both the profit growth rate and revenue growth rate rebounded. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded to 0.9%. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits quickly rebounded to 20.4%, with a marginal increase of 21.9%. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise revenue in August was 1.9%, with a marginal increase of 1.0%. The improvement in profit was contributed by quantity, price, and profit margin, with the profit - margin improvement being the most obvious, possibly related to investment income recognition [27]. - Structurally, the rebound in profit growth in August may be due to the concentrated recognition of state - owned enterprise investment income and the effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. In terms of revenue, the year - on - year growth rate of upstream manufacturing industries rebounded, while that of mid - and downstream industries declined, mainly affected by the "anti - involution" policy [30]. - At the end of August, the nominal year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise finished - product inventories declined to 2.3%, and the real inventory year - on - year growth rate declined to 5.4%. The real inventory depletion was faster under the influence of PPI convergence, mainly due to downstream advance procurement. The inventory turnover days remained unchanged at 20.5 days, and the accounts - receivable turnover days increased by 0.3 days to 70.1 days, indicating high business pressure [33]. 3.2.5 Industrial Added Value - In August, the production intensity declined, and the downstream production slowdown was obvious. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value declined to 5.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the service production index declined to 5.6%. Among the mid - level industries, the year - on - year growth rate of industries such as computer communication electronics, electrical machinery, and metal products declined significantly. The year - on - year growth rate of export delivery value turned negative to - 0.4% for the first time since 2024, confirming the differentiation of mid - level production data [36]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Asset Investment - In August, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline. The estimated single - month year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment declined to - 6.3%, and that of private investment declined to - 7.1%. The year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real - estate investment all declined. The estimated year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment declined to - 1.3%, that of new and old - caliber infrastructure investment declined to - 5.9% and - 6.4% respectively, and that of real - estate investment declined to - 19.5% [39]. 3.2.7 Social Retail Sales - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales declined to 3.4%, and that of above - quota retail sales declined to 2.4%. The narrowing of national subsidy channels and the overdraft effect of durable - goods consumption led to a lack of upward momentum in consumption. The national subsidy funds in the third quarter were 69 billion yuan, slightly lower than the 81 billion yuan per quarter in the first half of the year. The year - on - year performance of the three major national subsidy categories weakened significantly compared with June, and the year - on - year growth rate of optional consumption declined to - 0.1%. The three major national subsidy categories still contributed about 40% to the growth of social retail sales, indicating slow growth in other consumption categories [42]. 3.2.8 Social Financing - In September, the new social financing was 3.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 trillion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock declined to 8.7%, remained flat at 5.9% after excluding government bonds, and the credit growth rate in the social financing caliber declined to 6.4%. The year - on - year decrease in social financing was mainly dragged down by government bonds and credit. The year - on - year growth of long - term household loans turned positive, but that of long - term corporate loans still decreased. The M1 growth rate continued to rise, and the year - on - year growth of non - bank deposits turned negative [45].
股指或有所支撑，债市或震荡运行
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-10-20 07:02