Shandong Jinling Mining (SZ:000655) HTSC·2025-10-20 07:18Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Hold" [6] Core Views - The company is a rare iron ore producer in the A-share market, focusing on increasing production and quality to maintain profitability stability while actively seeking opportunities in non-ferrous metals [1][3] - In Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.247 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.98%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.09% [1] - The company emphasizes investor returns, with a cumulative dividend rate of approximately 27% as of Q3 2025 [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 479 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.78% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.18%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 70 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.25% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 30.66% [1][2] - The sales gross margin decreased from 30.8% in Q2 2025 to 22.7% in Q3 2025, indicating a potential rebound in iron ore costs [2] Market Outlook - Short-term iron ore prices are expected to stabilize, while medium-term supply pressures are anticipated due to a shift in the iron ore supply-demand balance towards loosening in 2024 [3] - The average price of iron concentrate in Q3 2025 was reported at 941 yuan, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [2] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 10.18 yuan, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 9.42 yuan, based on updated iron concentrate price assumptions [4] - The estimated net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 274 million yuan, 281 million yuan, and 281 million yuan, respectively, with a significant upward revision of 24%-25% compared to previous estimates [4]