HTSC·2025-10-20 07:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Life Insurance [5][7]. Core Views - The company expects a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025, projected to grow by 50% to 70% year-on-year, with a single-quarter growth estimate of 75% to 106% for Q3 [1][2]. - The substantial growth in investment income is attributed to the company's proactive approach in increasing equity investments, capitalizing on favorable market conditions, particularly in the stock market [2][3]. - The insurance service performance is also expected to improve significantly due to rising interest rates, which positively impact the company's insurance service revenue [3][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Income - The company has actively increased its equity investment, resulting in a substantial year-on-year increase in investment income. The stock market performed well in Q3, with the CSI 300 index rising by 18% compared to the same period last year [2]. - As of the first half of 2025, the allocation ratios for FVOCI stocks, FVTPL stocks, and funds were 2.5%, 6.7%, and 4.9%, respectively, indicating a higher allocation to FVTPL stocks compared to peers, which may benefit from market uptrends [2]. Insurance Service Performance - The report estimates that the insurance service performance will also see significant growth in Q3, driven by rising interest rates. The company has experienced fluctuations in insurance service performance since switching to new accounting standards at the beginning of 2023 [3]. - The report highlights that the company's insurance service performance is sensitive to interest rate changes, with a notable increase in Q1 and a decrease in Q2, followed by another expected increase in Q3 due to rising rates [3]. New Business Value (NBV) - The report anticipates steady growth in NBV for Q3, supported by the continuous reduction in preset interest rates and the removal of sales restrictions on insurance products by banks, which has allowed for rapid expansion [4]. - The company reported a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 179% in NBV from other channels, including bancassurance, in the first half of the year, with expectations for this growth trend to continue into Q3 [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to RMB 6.07, RMB 4.16, and RMB 4.70, respectively, reflecting increases of 89%, 25%, and 25% [5][10]. - The target prices for A/H shares are raised to RMB 52 and HKD 29, respectively, based on DCF valuation methods [5][11].