乙二醇日报：成本支撑差叠加库存压力，乙二醇延续偏弱格局-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Ethylene glycol may continue its low-level oscillating pattern in the short term, with the core contradictions being: cost differentiation intensifying, inventory accumulation suppressing market sentiment, and funds waiting for directional guidance. Overall, in the absence of new drivers, ethylene glycol may maintain a weak outlook, and attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil and coal price fluctuations on the cost side [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - Price and Basis: The price of the ethylene glycol主力合约 dropped from 4,089 yuan/ton to 4,003 yuan/ton, a single-day decline of 2.1%, showing a continuous callback trend. The spot price in East China also fell by 80 yuan/ton to 4,075 yuan/ton, and the futures-spot basis strengthened slightly, indicating that the decline of the spot was slightly slower than that of the futures [2] - Position and Trading Volume: The position of the主力 contract increased by 6,474 lots to 340,400 lots, but the trading volume decreased by 7.95% to 160,000 lots, reflecting intensified divergence between long and short in the market, reduced trading activity, and increased wait-and-see sentiment among short-term funds [3] - Supply Side: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained at 71.04%, with the oil-based and coal-based operating rates stable at 76.49% and 62.95% respectively, showing no significant fluctuations on the supply side. The profit of ethylene-based plants improved (e.g., the profit of SD oxidation method rebounded by 98 yuan/ton), but the coal-based profit decreased by 76 yuan/ton to 410.87 yuan/ton, and the natural gas-based profit also declined by 50 yuan/ton. Cost pressure may suppress the willingness of coal chemical plants to increase production [4] - Demand Side: The load of downstream polyester plants remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained at 63.43%. There were no signs of incremental demand at the terminal, and the peak-season effect weakened [5] - Inventory Side: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 34,000 tons to 541,000 tons, reaching a recent high, but the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased by 13,000 tons. The regional differentiation indicated that there was still pressure on port arrivals, but there was local inventory reduction [6] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Futures and Spot Prices: The price of the ethylene glycol主力 contract decreased by 86 yuan/ton to 4,003 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.1%. The spot price in East China dropped by 80 yuan/ton to 4,075 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.93% [8] - Profit: The profits of most ethylene-based production methods improved, with increases ranging from 18 - 81 yuan/ton and increases of 2.36 - 17.75%. The coal-based profit decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 388 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.52%. The natural gas-based and oilfield associated gas-based profits remained unchanged [8] - Operating Rates: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal-based, oil-based, polyester plant, and textile loom operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained unchanged, with a change of 0% [8] - Inventory: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 34,000 tons to 541,000 tons, a 6.71% increase. The inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased by 13,000 tons to 165,000 tons, a 7.30% decrease [8] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On October 17, the negotiation center of the East China US dollar market remained stable in the morning and declined in the afternoon, with no reported transactions. International crude oil continued to fall, and the ethylene glycol market price weakened. The East China price was negotiated at around 4,110 yuan/ton [9] - On October 17, the spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable at around 3,780 yuan/ton for self-pickup. The mainstream market was weak, and downstream players purchased as needed [9] - On October 17, the mainstream market was weak, and the quotes of holders in the South China market were lowered. The market transactions were light, with the price at around 4,250 yuan/ton for delivery [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol主力 contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory at the main ports in East China (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [10][12][14]