集运日报：SCFI大幅上涨，但月底运价仍小幅下行，盘面宽幅震荡，不建议加仓，设置好止损-20251020

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - SCFI has risen significantly, but the end - of - month freight rates are still slightly down, and the futures market shows wide - range fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [3]. - In the short - term, the main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, and do not hold losing positions. Set stop - loss [3]. - In the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, and then wait for the correction to stabilize before making further judgments [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - SCFIS and NCFI: On October 13, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1031.8 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 862.48 points, down 1.6% from the previous period. On October 17, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 956.45 points, up 16.79% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 803.21 points, up 14.96% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1254.46 points, up 48.56% from the previous period [2]. - SCFI: On October 17, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI was 1310.32 points, up 149.90 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 1145 USD/TEU, up 7.2% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 11936 USD/FEU, up 31.9% from the previous period [2]. - CCFI: On October 17, the China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 973.11 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1267.91 points, down 1.5% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 725.47 points, down 6.7% from the previous period [2]. PMI Data - Eurozone: In September, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary services PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [2]. - China: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [2]. - US: In September, the preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary services PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [2]. Tariff and Market Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has a slight decline, and the tariff issue has a marginal effect [3]. Futures Market - On October 17, the main contract 2512 closed at 1654.7, down 0.5%, with a trading volume of 2.98 million lots and an open interest of 2.57 million lots, a decrease of 139 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3]. Geopolitical Situation - There are continuous conflicts in the Israel - Palestine region. On October 19, armed personnel in the Rafah area of the Gaza Strip fired anti - tank missiles and opened fire on the Israeli army. The Israeli army launched air strikes and shelling in the Rafah area and also attacked the Deir al - Balah area in the central Gaza Strip. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu instructed to take tough actions in the Gaza Strip, and Israeli senior officials expect more air strikes in the Gaza Strip [3].