中国宏观数据点评：三季度经济增速略超预期，但9月实体经济数据显示内需继续走弱

Economic Growth - China's GDP growth rate for Q3 2023 is 4.8%, slightly above market expectations of 4.7%[2] - Nominal GDP growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7%[2] - Q3 quarter-on-quarter economic growth accelerated by 0.1 percentage points to 1.1%, exceeding the market expectation of 0.8%[2] Domestic Demand - September retail sales growth fell for the fourth consecutive month, decreasing from 3.4% in August to 3.0%[3] - Fixed asset investment showed a significant decline, turning negative at -0.5%, below the market expectation of 0.1%[5] - Cumulative urban residents' disposable income growth rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 4.4%[2] Industrial Production - Industrial production value growth rebounded by 1.3 percentage points to 6.5%, surpassing the market expectation of 5.0%[5] - Manufacturing production growth in September increased by 1.6 percentage points to 7.3%[5] External Trade - Exports in September rebounded by 3.9 percentage points to 8.3%, with a trade surplus maintained above $90 billion[7] - The trade conflict with the U.S. poses significant risks, with a 40% chance of renewed tariffs on Chinese goods by November 1[8] Policy Outlook - Limited economic stimulus measures are expected in Q4, with a forecasted GDP growth of around 5% for the year[9] - Monetary policy predictions include a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10-20 basis point interest rate reduction[10]