弘业期货纸浆周报-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The pulp main contract fluctuated at a low level last week. The SP2601 opened at 5080, reached a minimum of 5042, a maximum of 5198, and closed at 5122, with a gain of 0.87%. As of October 17, the top 20 long positions in the pulp 2601 contract were 114,426 lots (an increase of 5,390 lots from the previous day), and the top 20 short positions were 127,104 lots (an increase of 5,198 lots from the previous day) [2] - As of October 17, the price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Shandong Wuzhen was 5,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week [2] - It is reported that in September 2025, Chile's Arauco Company's quotation for coniferous pulp Yinxing remained unchanged at $700/ton; the quotation for broadleaf pulp Mingxing was $540/ton, an increase of $20/ton; the quotation for natural pulp Jinxing remained unchanged at $590/ton [2] - In September 2025, China's pulp imports were 2.952 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.3% and a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 27.061 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 5.6%. In September 2025, the import volume of bleached coniferous pulp was 691,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12.5% and a year-on-year increase of 11.3%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 6.431 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.4% [2] - In this period, the downstream demand for household paper was weak, the paper mills' shipments were poor, and the industry's operating rate was low. The large white cardboard manufacturers had strong production and sales, the paper mills' profitability improved, but the traders' shipments were average and their trading enthusiasm was not high. The downstream consumption of offset paper continued to be weak, the operating level of some printing factories was not high, and the procurement was mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The copperplate paper market had sufficient supply, the demand was weak, the consumption speed of downstream base paper was slow, and users purchased according to quantity [2] - As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.074 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 25.7%. The weak demand from downstream paper mills and limited提货 led to high inventory [2] - The total import volume of pulp continued to increase year-on-year, and the shipments of international mainstream suppliers to the Chinese market also remained at a high level. Coupled with the high port inventory, the short-term pressure on the supply side was difficult to relieve. The overall terminal demand in the downstream base paper market was weak, paper mills mainly purchased raw materials for rigid demand, and the willingness to actively increase purchases was weak. The overall market sentiment was cautious. The current "supply is stronger than demand" pattern in the pulp market continued, but thanks to the relatively strong spot price and the support of import costs, the downward space for prices may be limited, and it is likely to maintain a low-level fluctuation in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - The report presents the price data of pulp, including the closing price of the pulp futures main contract, pulp basis, the CFR intermediate price of Yinxing in China's main port area, the CFR intermediate price of broadleaf pulp Mingxing, the mainstream price of Mingxing brand broadleaf pulp in Shandong, and the market price of coniferous pulp Yinxing in Shanghai [3][5][7][8][10][13][15] Pulp Supply - The report shows the pulp import volume and coniferous pulp import volume from 2021 to 2025 [16][18][20] Pulp Demand - The report includes the consumption of coniferous pulp in Europe, the apparent consumption of pulp in China, the operating rate of downstream base paper, the consumption of downstream base paper, the inventory of downstream base paper, and the price of downstream base paper [21][22][24][33][37][41] Pulp Inventory - The report presents the inventory data of pulp, including European pulp port inventory, global wood pulp finished product inventory available days, pulp futures inventory, European coniferous pulp inventory, and European coniferous pulp inventory available days [44][45][46][48][50][54]