Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Core View of the Report - The log market is currently facing issues such as near - month discount and poor demand. The price of logs is expected to continue to fluctuate in the seasonal peak season. However, if the downstream demand continues to fall short of expectations and there are no positive factors in tariffs and the real estate sector, the far - month contracts may also experience a discount when entering the delivery month and potentially decline to a lower level. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Industry Data - Futures and Spot - Spot prices: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 760 yuan/cubic meter, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port is 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. In October 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs is 115 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, up 1 US dollar/cubic meter from the previous month [3]. - Futures prices: As of the close on October 20, the main log contract 2601 closed at 834.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 2511 contract closed at 802.5 yuan/cubic meter. Recently, there has been a divergence between near - and far - month futures prices. The far - month contracts remain in a relatively strong oscillation, while the near - month contracts have fallen significantly in the middle of the month under the discount [3]. Log Industry Data - Supply - Shipment from New Zealand ports (October 11 - 17, 2025): A total of 12 ships with 460,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, with the number of ships remaining the same as the previous period and the volume increasing by 10,000 cubic meters. Among them, 7 ships with 260,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 2 ships and 80,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period [3]. - Expected arrival at 13 ports (October 13 - 19, 2025): 13 ships of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 ships compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 86%. The total arrival volume is about 455,500 cubic meters, an increase of 200,500 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 79% [3]. - Actual arrival at 13 ports (October 6 - 12, 2025): 7 ships of New Zealand logs arrived at 13 Chinese ports, a decrease of 7 ships compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 50%. The total arrival volume is about 255,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 234,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 48% [3]. - Import volume in September 2025: China imported 4.669 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber. From January to August, the import volume was 42.176 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 12.7%. The import volume in September continued to decline, significantly reduced compared to 2024 and at a historical low. Radiata pine mainly comes from New Zealand, and fir and spruce mainly come from Europe. There is an obvious trend of resource concentration, with an increase in the proportion from New Zealand and an increase in the proportion of radiata pine imports [3]. Log Industry Data - Inventory - As of October 17, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs is 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. The radiata pine inventory is 2.41 million cubic meters, a decrease of 50,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.03%. The North American timber inventory is 90,000 cubic meters, remaining the same as the previous week. The spruce/fir inventory is 200,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week [4]. - Overall, with the decline in FOB costs and weak support from the downstream peak season, due to the relatively low recent arrivals, the national coniferous log inventory is in a state of destocking. The radiata pine, the main inventory tree species in China, continues to be destocked, and the North American timber inventory remains at a low level [4]. Log Industry Data - Demand - Domestic port log outbound volume: As of October 10, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 57,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 8,300 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 12.65%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong remains the same as the previous period, and the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu is 17,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 8,400 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 31.94% [4]. - The national log outbound volume continues to decline. According to Mulin news, there is a differentiation in demand structure. Price increases are mainly concentrated in high - quality woods such as large - size (e.g., large A - grade) and knot - free woods (e.g., P30, P40). The price increase of high - quality woods has driven a small increase in the price of medium A standard goods, but the overall outbound volume has slightly decreased [4]. - Real estate data shows that the year - on - year performance of shipment and outbound volume is poor. Indicators such as new construction starts and funds in place all reflect the downward trend of the real estate market, which continues to suppress the demand for logs [4]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Tariffs and Imports/Exports) - There is an obvious trend of resource concentration in China's radiata pine imports, with an increasing proportion from New Zealand. There is a growing risk of over - dependence on a single source, and attention should be paid to the impact of international price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions on domestic processing enterprises [5]. - The anti - involution policy has had a certain indirect boost during the off - season this year. The downstream products of logs and black futures varieties are also affected by the construction and manufacturing industries. The correlation between construction wooden squares and coke in the log downstream is 0.9. To some extent, the industrial structure adjustment in the construction industry has a positive impact on the sentiment of the log futures market, and the previous indirect boost and decline of the anti - involution policy have been reflected in the market [5]. - The Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement in May will be beneficial to wood product exports, especially boosting the demand for laminated wood and pulpwood. Downstream factories may replenish log inventories to meet the export demand gap, thereby accelerating log destocking. However, the current sluggish terminal market has a negative feedback effect, and the log market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the medium and long term [5]. - Regarding the Sino - US economic and trade talks in July, the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs and counter - tariffs for 90 days has been extended again, and there is still uncertainty about the export cost of Chinese wood products [5]. - Recently, there have been various tariff change news. The US - EU trade agreement has included wood in the 15% tariff ceiling category, marking a structural reduction in the trade barriers for wood between the US and the EU. New US tariffs on wood came into effect on Tuesday (October 14). The new tariffs impose a 10% ad valorem tariff on the import of softwood and lumber and a 25% ad valorem tariff on some upholstered wood products, and the tax rate will increase again next year. This news mainly affects Vietnam, Canada, and Mexico and may also have an impact on the global trade direction [5]. - Although New Zealand's wood exports to the US currently enjoy tariff exemptions, the market generally expects the US to announce additional tariffs on New Zealand wood products in mid - to late October. The US is the largest export market for New Zealand's knot - free wood, which may lead to a change in the export direction [5]. - The European Commission has announced higher anti - dumping duties on hardwood plywood imported from China, which will come into effect on December 7, 2025. The Mexican Ministry of Economy has issued an announcement making a positive preliminary anti - dumping ruling on cardboard originating from China [5]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Trading and Delivery) - The first batch of deliveries of the 07 contract in each region went smoothly. The market believes that the 5.9 - meter medium A specification is a cost - effective delivery product, with a premium of 50 yuan/cubic meter compared to the benchmark product [6]. - The 09 contract had its first delivery attempts in multiple places, providing strong support for the stable operation of the market. The 2509 contract had 136 delivery matches, an 89% decrease compared to the 1281 matches of the 07 contract. The successful delivery was 131 matches, with a delivery success rate of 96.3%. According to Mulin news, as the delivery month approaches, some processing plants said they will reduce spot log purchases and wait for the delivery goods of the 11 contract to enter the market. The downstream is generally satisfied with the quality of the delivery standard products [6]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Downstream and Building Materials/Real Estate) - As of October 14, the fund availability rate of sample construction sites is 59.44%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 percentage points. The fund availability rate of construction sites has weakened this week. The funds for housing construction projects have improved, while the fund availability of non - housing construction projects has decreased. Some construction sites reported poor post - holiday payment collection and have no plans for rush construction [6]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores nationwide was 130.838 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 23.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.02%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 1.044801 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.75% [6]. Log Industry Data - Strategies and Suggestions - The log futures prices increased significantly from July to August, mainly due to factors such as shortages of some log specifications, rising FOB prices, and inventory preparation for the 09 futures contract delivery. The spot log prices also increased continuously, especially the 5.9 - meter medium A with a large increase driven by delivery profits. Due to the negative outlook for real estate demand in the future, the near - and far - month prices diverged after entering the delivery month. The sentiment in the near - month market was weak, the 09 contract remained at a low level. After the main contract switched to 2511, the 11 contract reached a phased low in early September and then rebounded with oscillations [7]. - The increase in September was mainly affected by rising FOB prices and some positive factors during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. It is reported that laminated wood processing plants have a demand for non - blue - stained raw materials. The FOB prices from New Zealand and domestic spot prices remain relatively strong. However, the futures prices dropped rapidly after the holiday in October, mainly due to the pessimistic outlook for downstream demand in the future, the difficult - to - change negative situation in the real estate industry, the end of pre - holiday inventory preparation demand, and the average post - holiday demand. According to Mulin statistics, there is pressure for an increase in future arrivals, and the inventory trend may change from destocking to stockpiling [7]. - The current main contract, 2601, is oscillating strongly, with a divergence between near - and far - month prices. The 2511 contract had a large decline previously and has rebounded slightly recently. As the delivery month approaches, attention should be paid to risks. It is expected that with stable FOB prices in the next period, the log prices may continue to oscillate during the seasonal peak season. However, if the downstream actual demand continues to fall short of expectations and there are no positive factors in tariffs and the real estate sector, the far - month contracts may also experience a discount when entering the delivery month and potentially decline to a lower level. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [7].
弘业期货近月贴水，需求不佳
Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-10-20 07:42