燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：美国库存充足气价下降，欧洲储库推进、国内需求缓慢修复，气价均较为平稳-20251020

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the US has sufficient gas inventory leading to a decrease in gas prices, while Europe is advancing its storage and domestic demand is slowly recovering, resulting in relatively stable gas prices across regions [1][4] - The investment outlook for 2025 suggests a relaxed supply environment, cost optimization for gas companies, and a continued adjustment of pricing mechanisms with increasing demand [52] Price Tracking - As of October 17, 2025, the week-on-week price changes for various gas prices are as follows: US HH -8.6%, European TTF -1.7%, East Asia JKM +0.8%, China LNG ex-factory -0.4%, and China LNG CIF +5.5% [9][14] - The average total supply of natural gas in the US decreased by 0.1% week-on-week to 111.7 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand increased by 2.7% to 101.3 billion cubic feet per day [15] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that the US natural gas market is experiencing a price drop due to ample inventory, with a total storage increase of 80 billion cubic feet to 37,210 billion cubic feet year-on-year [15] - In Europe, natural gas consumption from January to July 2025 was 265.4 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 5% [17] - Domestic gas prices in China saw a week-on-week decrease of 0.4%, with apparent consumption from January to August 2025 increasing by 0.8% year-on-year to 283.2 billion cubic meters [21][26] Pricing Progress - Nationwide pricing adjustments are gradually being implemented, with 65% of cities having executed residential pricing adjustments, resulting in an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [36] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, all of which have attractive dividend yields [52][53] - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [53]