CAITONG SECURITIES·2025-10-20 07:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquor industry [1] Core Insights - The report analyzes the adjustment phases of the liquor industry, comparing the current phase with the 2013-2016 period, highlighting that the current adjustment is primarily driven by a decline in business demand, which is less severe than the previous round [3] - It emphasizes that the purchasing power of consumers for high-end liquor has significantly improved compared to the lowest price point in 2014, indicating a potential for market recovery [3] - The report identifies three major changes in the liquor market: increased concentration among top companies, the rise of sauce-flavored liquor, and improved market value management practices among liquor companies [3] Summary by Sections 1. Historical Adjustment Phases - The liquor industry has entered a fifth year of adjustment since 2021, with significant impacts from the 2025 policy aimed at reducing government consumption [8] - The report reviews the historical context of the 2013-2016 adjustment, noting that the current environment is different but shares some similarities [8] 2. Current Adjustment Stage - The report indicates that the liquor industry has been in a downward adjustment since the third quarter of 2024, with expectations for recovery around the second quarter of 2026 [42] - It highlights that the current adjustment is less severe than the previous one, with a maximum revenue decline of 5% and profit decline of 8% compared to the previous maximums of 15% and 30% respectively [50] 3. Market Changes Impacting Investment - The concentration of the top six liquor companies has increased significantly, with their revenue share rising from 18.3% in 2013 to 48.1% in 2024, enhancing industry self-regulation [51] - The report notes that the expansion of sauce-flavored liquor production capacity has not yet translated into revenue share, but it is expected to gain traction in the future [3] - It discusses the evolving market value management strategies among liquor companies, including increased dividend payouts and share buybacks, which are expected to enhance investor returns [3]