棉花周报2025-10-20：北疆皮棉成本逐渐固化，棉价上方套保压力仍存短期价格或延续震荡走势，关注后续订单及宏观动态行-20251020

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded in the second half of this week. Currently, Xinjiang cotton is in the stage of concentrated supply. The cotton harvesting in northern Xinjiang is nearing completion, and a large number of cotton pickers are moving from north to south to southern Xinjiang for harvesting. The purchase price of seed cotton is relatively stable. The short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to fluctuate. Whether the cooling in the south will boost autumn and winter consumption and drive replenishment orders needs further observation. Macro factors such as Sino - US negotiations also need to be closely monitored [3][37]. - The cost of new - season lint cotton in northern Xinjiang is gradually solidified, with the mainstream theoretical cost ranging from 13,800 to 14,400 yuan/ton on a legal weight basis. There is certain hedging pressure above the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton, and there is cost support below, so it is likely to remain volatile in the short term [3][37]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets 1.1 One - Week Data Overview - As of October 17, the CRB commodity price index closed at 293.35 points, up 0.59 points from October 10. The Wenhua Commodity Index on October 17 was 159.47, down 2.43 points or 1.5% from October 10. The ICE cotton futures main contract for December on October 17 was 64.29 cents/pound, up 0.52 cents/pound or 0.8% from October 10. The main contract 01 of Zhengzhou cotton as of the week ending October 17 closed at 13,335 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from October 10, and the open interest increased by 31,000 lots to 586,000 lots [2][10][36]. - The prices of domestic and international cotton and related commodities showed different trends. For example, the price of gold increased, the price of crude oil decreased, and the prices of agricultural products in the plate increased [10]. - The prices of imported cotton from the US and Brazil decreased. For the US E/MOTM, the price decreased by 2.4 cents/pound, and for Brazil M, it decreased by 2.1 cents/pound [9]. 1.2 Domestic Market Conditions - Textile Raw Material Trends: On October 17, the prices of raw materials showed mixed trends compared to October 10. The price of viscose decreased by 76 yuan, while the prices of polyester staple fiber and CCI3128 remained unchanged, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton's main contract increased by 10 yuan [14][15]. - Yarn Price Trends: On October 17, the prices of domestic and imported yarns generally declined. The price of domestic yarns such as OE10S, C32S, and JC40S decreased, and the prices of imported yarns in RMB terms also decreased slightly. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns decreased [18][20][23]. - Comparison of Domestic Cotton Futures and Spot Prices with International Cotton Price Index (Tax - included): On October 17, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 14,757 yuan/ton. The difference between the spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale tariff decreased compared to October 10. The difference between the main contract and the FCIndexM under the sliding - scale tariff increased [26]. 2. Second Part: Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis 2.1 Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - As of October 17, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 2,653 lots (114,000 tons), with 183 effective forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 121,000 tons, down from 127,000 tons on October 10 [30]. 2.2 Analysis of the Price Difference between Zhengzhou Cotton Futures and Spot - On October 17, the price difference between Zhengzhou cotton futures and the CCI3128B index was - 1,432 yuan/ton, an increase from - 1,329 yuan/ton on October 10 [33]. 2.3 Zhengzhou Cotton Price Analysis - Macro - aspect: The US government shutdown has lasted for some time, and the US economy is shifting from a contractionary monetary policy to a loose one. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October with a probability of 98%. In China, the consumer market in September was generally stable, with the CPI rising 0.1% month - on - month and falling 0.3% year - on - year [34]. - Supply - side: In September 2025, China's cotton imports were 100,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 680,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69.8%. As of the end of September, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons, at a historical low [35]. - Downstream Market: This week, the price of pure - cotton yarn was mainly stable. The trading atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market was weaker than last week, and the overall new orders were insufficient. The profit of yarn mills improved [35]. - Technical Aspect: The technical indicators of Zhengzhou cotton's main contract 01 turned stronger. The MACD green column turned red, the DIFF and DEA were about to form a golden cross, and the KDJ indicator was also about to form a golden cross [40]. 3. Third Part: International Market Analysis 3.1 US Cotton Export Dynamics - From September 12 - 18, the net signing of US 2025/26 - season upland cotton was 19,527 tons, a decrease of 54% from the previous week. The shipment of upland cotton was 31,116 tons, an increase of 14% from the previous week. The net signing of Pima cotton increased significantly, and the shipment of Pima cotton also increased [43]. - As of September 23, the CFTC fund net long position was - 68,812, a decrease of 3,305 from the previous week [46]. 3.2 ICE Cotton Futures Analysis - On October 17, the ICE cotton futures main contract for December was 64.29 cents/pound, up 0.52 cents/pound or 0.8% from October 10. Technically, the KDJ indicator was about to form a golden cross and diverge upwards, and the technical indicators turned stronger [48]. 4. Fourth Part: Operation Suggestions - For upstream cotton enterprises, they can hedge on the futures market based on the cost of lint cotton calculated from the purchase price of seed cotton, or consider buying put options to hedge risks. - For downstream textile enterprises, they can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the purchase cost of lint cotton when the raw material price drops [50].