港股市场策略周报 2025.10.13-2025.10.19-20251020

Group 1: Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline due to renewed US-China trade tensions and profit-taking after previous gains, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng Composite Index dropping by -4.11%, -3.97%, and -7.98% respectively [3][10][13] - Defensive sectors such as utilities and telecommunications showed resilience, while previously high-performing sectors like technology and healthcare faced substantial corrections [3][10][13] Group 2: Market Valuation Levels - As of the end of the week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Composite Index stood at 81.45%, indicating that the valuation level is close to one standard deviation above the 5-year average [3] Group 3: Market Macro Environment - The macroeconomic environment shows weak inflation in September, with CPI down by 0.3% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.3% [37][43] - The central bank's monetary policy remains supportive, with a focus on enhancing domestic demand and stabilizing growth through proactive measures [37][43] Group 4: Fund Flow Analysis - Southbound capital showed strong buying interest, with a net inflow of 45.089 billion HKD, marking a new high in five weeks and maintaining a streak of 22 consecutive weeks of net inflows [43] - The top net buying companies included Pop Mart, Xiaomi, and China Mobile, indicating a preference for consumer discretionary and technology sectors [32] Group 5: Sector Allocation Outlook - The report favors sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, such as automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][43] - Low-valuation state-owned enterprises and local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility stocks are also highlighted as stable performers benefiting from the interest rate cut cycle [3][43]