安监趋严、供给收紧，大面积降温预计助推煤价持续上涨：煤炭行业周报（2025.10.12-2025.10.19）-20251020

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the sector, suggesting it is expected to outperform the overall market in the coming months [34]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic thermal coal prices, with prices for various grades rising substantially. For instance, the price for Q4500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port increased by 36 RMB/ton to 578 RMB/ton as of October 17 [3]. - Supply constraints are noted due to ongoing maintenance on the Daqin Railway and stricter safety inspections, which are expected to continue impacting coal supply negatively [3]. - Demand for thermal coal is expected to rise due to seasonal heating needs, particularly in northern regions, which is likely to support price increases [3]. - The report recommends several undervalued stocks in the coal sector, including Shanxi Coking Coal, Huabei Mining, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, while also highlighting stable dividend-paying companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3]. Recent Industry Policies and Developments - On October 10, a new coal mining and washing project commenced in Shaanxi, with a designed production capacity of 5 million tons per year [7]. - A significant coal-to-natural gas project in Northeast China has made progress, expected to convert 7.5 million tons of low-quality coal into 1.33 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually [7]. - A new coal import reserve base is being developed in Qiqihar, aiming for a storage capacity of 4 million tons [7]. Price Movements - Domestic thermal coal prices have seen substantial increases, with specific grades reporting rises of up to 40 RMB/ton [8]. - The report notes that international coal prices have shown mixed trends, with Indonesian coal prices slightly increasing while Australian and South African prices have decreased [9]. Inventory and Shipping Costs - The report indicates a decrease in coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports, with a total of 23.82 million tons as of October 17, down 6.86% from the previous week [17]. - Domestic shipping costs have risen significantly, with average coastal shipping rates increasing by 28.96% to 43.05 RMB/ton [23]. Company Valuation - The report provides a detailed valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and projected earnings ratios for the coming years [29].