有色金属周报：碳酸锂下游备库放缓，限制上方空间-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply contraction expectation weakens, supply continues to grow, downstream purchasing remains cautious, the inventory preparation rhythm slows down, and demand may reach its peak. It is expected that the rebound space of lithium carbonate is limited. The recommended strategy is to sell short at the upper edge of the range, with an operating range of 68,000 - 78,000 [5][90] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 3.56%. The trading volume reached 1.41 million lots (+750,000), and the open interest reached 159,000 lots (-62,900). The basis was at a discount of 2,350 yuan/ton [7][8] 1.2 Supply Side Lithium Ore - In September, China's spodumene production was 6,800 tons of LCE, a month-on-month increase of 1.9%; China's lepidolite production was 8,150 tons of LCE, a month-on-month decrease of 9.2% [12] - In August, the import volume of lithium concentrate decreased to 470,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.0% [16] - In August, the volume of spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China increased to 128,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 44.3% and a year-on-year increase of 26.6% [20] Lithium Battery Recycling - In October, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 27,934 tons, remaining flat month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 30.1% [23] Carbonate Lithium - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 21,066 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.1% [28] - In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate rose to 21,847 tons, a month-on-month increase of 57.8% and a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [28] - In September, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 11,101 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 14.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 33.1% [30] Lithium Hydroxide - In October, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 40%, and the production was 27,020 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.8% [37] - In August, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 5,673 tons, a month-on-month increase of 354.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 45.6% [37] 1.3 Downstream Demand Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 85,039 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [41] - In October, the scheduled production of iron phosphate was 329,270 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6% and a year-on-year increase of 58% [41] Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 17,247 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.6% [47] - In August, the import volume remained flat, and the export volume increased [47] Ternary Precursors - In October, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 48%, and the production was 90,540 tons, a month-on-month increase of 16.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [52] - In August, the export volume increased [52] Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In October, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the production was 12,124 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1% and a year-on-year decrease of 4% [53] - In October, the operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 69%, and the production was 12,880 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 72% [53] Electrolyte - In October, the production of electrolyte was 200,180 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1% and a year-on-year increase of 30% [61] - In August, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased [61] 1.4 Terminal Demand Power Batteries - In September, the production of power batteries was 151.2 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 8.3% and a year-on-year increase of 35.8% [65] - In September, the installed capacity of power batteries was 76 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 21.6% and a year-on-year increase of 39.4% [65] New Energy Vehicles - In September, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.617 million, a month-on-month increase of 16.3% and a year-on-year increase of 23.7% [68] - In September, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.604 million, a month-on-month increase of 15.0% and a year-on-year increase of 24.6% [68] Energy Storage - In October, the production of energy storage batteries was 53.1 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 0.8% and a year-on-year increase of 40.1% [72] - In August, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 6.7 GW, a month-on-month increase of 14.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 60.4%; the winning bid capacity scale was 18.65 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 11.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.5% [72] Consumer Electronics - In August, China's smartphone production was 10.04 million units, a month-on-month increase of 6.4% and a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [75] - In August, China's production of microelectronic computers was 2.769 million units, a month-on-month increase of 8.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.3% [75] 1.5 Cost - The price of lithium ore rebounded. The price of 6% spodumene concentrate increased by 7 US dollars/ton, and the price of lepidolite increased by 15 yuan/ton [80] 1.6 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 2,143 tons. Structurally, the smelter's inventory decreased by 464 tons, the downstream's inventory decreased by 2,030 tons, and other inventories increased by 350 tons [85] - Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 970 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials increased by 114 tons [86] 1.7 Market Outlook - The recommended strategy is to sell short at the upper edge of the range, with an operating range of 68,000 - 78,000. The supply contraction expectation weakens, supply continues to grow, downstream purchasing remains cautious, the inventory preparation rhythm slows down, and demand may reach its peak. It is expected that the rebound space of lithium carbonate is limited [90]