Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-20 08:34Investment Rating - The report rates the express delivery industry as "Overweight" [8] Core Insights - The express delivery industry continues to show growth, with September business volume increasing by approximately 12% year-on-year, and revenue expected to grow by around 7% [3] - The average revenue per package in September was 7.58 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3% [3] - The report highlights a significant upward trend in pricing due to the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts within the industry, leading to improved profitability for express companies [3] Summary by Sections Business Volume and Revenue - YTO Express reported a business volume of 2.627 billion packages in September, a year-on-year increase of 13.64%, with an average revenue per package of 2.21 yuan, up 1.4% [1] - Shentong Express completed 2.187 billion packages, a 9.46% increase year-on-year, with an average revenue per package of 2.12 yuan, up 4.95% [1] - Yunda reported a business volume of 2.110 billion packages, a 3.63% increase year-on-year, with an average revenue per package of 2.02 yuan, up 0.50% [1] Pricing Trends - The report notes that the average package price has increased significantly, with Yunda seeing a month-on-month increase of 0.10 yuan, YTO and Shentong both increasing by 0.06 yuan [3] - The report anticipates that the third quarter will see express companies begin to realize profits from price increases, with a focus on the profit elasticity in the fourth quarter [3] Market Outlook - The report suggests three potential scenarios for the future of the express delivery industry: 1. Continued price recovery leading to significant dividends while ensuring the rights of delivery personnel 2. Ongoing competitive dynamics in various regions, resulting in increased industry differentiation 3. Potential for higher-level consolidation and supply-side optimization [3] - Companies recommended for investment include Shentong Express, YTO Express, and Jitu Express, with a focus on Zhongtong Express and Yunda [3]