能源化工周报：短期跟随成本运行-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - PX prices declined during the week due to lack of cost support. International oil prices dropped continuously because of signs of easing geopolitical conflicts and Sino - US trade frictions. Domestic PX开工 was at a high level for the year, and although there was a fire at a South Korean refinery, the PX device was not affected. Downstream demand did not improve significantly, leading to a price decline under weak cost and fundamentals [9]. - PTA prices also fell during the week due to the lack of cost support and the expectation of new device commissioning. The weakness of crude oil and PX negatively affected the PTA market sentiment. The potential trial - run of 2.7 million tons of new PTA production capacity in East China would increase the supply pressure. Although downstream开工 increased driven by the demand for warm - keeping products, the subsequent upward space was limited, and the fundamental boost to PTA was weakening [9]. 2.2 Market Forecast - Crude oil prices will fluctuate within a narrow range, waiting for the follow - up development of Sino - US trade issues. - For PX, due to sanctions, trade wars and other factors, the short - term production of some factories may be affected, thus affecting PX supply, but the overall开工 will remain at a high level. - For PTA, PTA factories have not further reduced production even under low - efficiency conditions, and the expectation of new device commissioning in East China suppresses market sentiment. It is expected that the开工 will remain at a high level. - For polyester, the polyester开工 load will be generally stable, and there are no planned start - up or shutdowns of polyester devices. At the end of the traditional peak demand season, it is estimated that polyester factories will not actively reduce production to maintain market share. - For the weaving industry, foreign customers are conservative in placing orders due to uncertain factors, resulting in slow placement of recent export orders. Domestic demand has increased, but factories are not optimistic about the subsequent market. - Overall, PX will operate weakly in the range of 6,150 - 6,350 yuan/ton; PTA will also operate weakly in the range of 4,300 - 4,500 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX - Futures: On October 17, the closing price of the PX main contract was 6,292 yuan/ton, down 212 yuan/ton from October 10, a change of - 3.26%. The settlement price on October 17 was 6,334 yuan/ton, down 198 yuan/ton from October 10, a change of - 3.03% [14]. - Spot: The market negotiation and trading atmosphere were acceptable, with a differentiated trend in the paper - spot market. From October 13 - 17, the average basis of the main contract was - 131 yuan/ton; the average domestic PX spot price was 6,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125.50 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of - 1.97% [15][17]. 3.1.2 PTA - Futures: The price decline was dominated by cost. On October 17, the closing price of the PTA main contract was 4,402 yuan/ton, down 132 yuan/ton from October 10, a change of - 2.91%. The settlement price on October 17 was 4,424 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from October 10, a change of - 2.85% [19][21]. - Spot: The negotiation atmosphere was average, mainly among traders, with individual polyester factories making inquiries. There was concentrated trading on Friday, with an average daily trading volume of about 2 - 3 million tons. From October 13 - 17, the average basis of the main contract was - 70 yuan/ton. The weekly average CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 549.2 US dollars/ton, down 17.8 US dollars/ton from the previous period, a change of - 3.13%. The average spot price of PTA in the East China market was 4,371.6 yuan/ton, down 108.07 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of - 2.41% [22][24]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Devices - There were changes in the operation of PX devices in different regions. For example, in East China, some enterprises such as Ningbo Daxie, Sheng Hong Refining and Chemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical had different load - operation conditions. In North China, Urumqi Petrochemical stopped for maintenance on October 14, expected to last for 15 days. The overall domestic PX开工 rate remained at a high level, and the planned maintenance of domestic and foreign PX devices in the fourth quarter was limited [29][33]. 3.2.2 PTA Devices - Some large - scale PTA devices were under maintenance, such as those of Ningbo Taihua, Hainan Yisheng, and Yisheng Dahua. The weekly开工 rate decreased by 1.92% [36][37]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - Crude Oil: European and American crude oil futures fell for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of more than 12%. The WTI crude oil futures settlement price on October 17 was 57.15 US dollars/barrel, down 1.75 US dollars/barrel from October 10. The Brent crude oil futures settlement price on October 17 was 61.29 US dollars/barrel, down 1.44 US dollars/barrel from October 10. The market was concerned about the resolution of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the price was affected by factors such as trade relations, supply and demand expectations, and geopolitical situations [42][44]. - Naphtha: The price continued to decline this week, and the economy rebounded slightly. The weekly average CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 550.25 US dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 60.72 US dollars/ton. The fundamental situation of naphtha did not change significantly, and the East - West arbitrage window remained open, with European naphtha flowing to Asia. The substitution effect of downstream LPG on naphtha affected some demand expectations, and the subsequent impact of sanctions and trade wars on naphtha remained to be evaluated [47][49]. 3.3.2 Supply - PX Processing Margin: The PXN margin rebounded slightly, and the short - process efficiency narrowed. The weekly average PXN was 236.92 US dollars/ton, a change of 7.36% from the previous period. The PX - MX margin remained at a high level, with a weekly average of 98.75 US dollars/ton. Due to the high domestic开工 rate and insufficient demand, the decline of PX was obvious, and the cash flow continued to narrow during the week, with short - process devices near the break - even point [50][52]. - PTA Processing Fee: The boost of device short - stops to the processing fee was limited. From October 13 - 17, the average spot processing fee of PTA was 169.05 yuan/ton, compared with 202.90 yuan/ton last week. Although the production reduction plan temporarily increased the processing fee, the demand did not improve significantly, and it was difficult to improve the processing fee under weak cost and demand [54][56]. - Inventory: As of October 16, the PTA social inventory was 4.126 million tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons from the previous week, a change of - 0.47% in the month - on - month growth rate. The decrease in inventory was due to device maintenance rather than demand improvement. The inventory days of PTA factories decreased by 0.14 days, while those of polyester factories increased by 1.15 days. As of October 16, the average inventory usage days of domestic PTA manufacturers were 4.08 days, and the raw material inventory days of polyester factories were 7.35 days. It was estimated that the upward space of the polyester开工 rate was limited in the later period, and the inventory - reduction rhythm would slow down [59][65]. 3.3.3 Demand - Polyester: The average weekly price of PTA declined, and the overall demand was weak, which was negative for the polyester market. The average market prices of semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F decreased by 1.47%, 0.82%, and 1.13% respectively from the previous period. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6,326 yuan/ton, a decrease of 93 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of - 1.45%. The negotiation range of polyester bottle chips in the East China region was 5,600 - 5,730 yuan/ton, and the average weekly price was 5,710.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.14% from the previous period. The average weekly polyester production and sales were estimated to be 70%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.38%, and the average weekly load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.22% [67][75]. - Weaving: The new export orders were placed slowly, and the weaving market lacked confidence in the future market. With the significant drop in temperature in the north, the online sales of autumn and winter textile and clothing accelerated, driving the sales of thick fabrics such as autumn and winter velvet and woolen fabrics. The starting rate of warp - knitting enterprises increased steadily. However, there was a risk of escalation of Sino - US trade frictions after the festival, and some export enterprises were accelerating the production of existing orders to avoid potential impacts [81][83].