“十五五”规划前瞻

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to be gradually implemented in three steps: the core content will be announced on October 23, 2025; the full text of the Party's "15th Five - Year Plan Outline Suggestions" will be released in the following days; the full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan Outline" will be officially released after being approved by the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress in March 2026. The plan will inherit and innovate on previous goals, especially in key areas such as economic growth, technological innovation, and institutional reform [1]. - Five - year plans have a profound impact on the macro - underlying logic, economic context, and capital markets. They often lead to significant stock market rallies and clearly define core investment tracks. They also affect the supply and demand of commodities, thereby influencing prices [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 "15th Five - Year Plan" Later Implementation Process and Main Nodes - The implementation process will follow three steps: on October 23, 2025, the "Fourth Plenary Session" will release a communiqué with the core content of the "15th Five - Year Plan"; in the following days, the Party's "15th Five - Year Plan Suggestions" will be released, along with an explanation by the General Secretary; the State Council will compile the final version of the plan based on the Party's suggestions and submit it to the National People's Congress for approval in March 2026 [1][6]. 3.2 Five - Year Plan Document Framework Content Overview - The "Five - Year Plan Outline" includes a general introduction (covering economic situation judgment, guiding ideology, principles, and goals), specific area discussions (detailing key tasks in various fields), and a conclusion (emphasizing Party leadership, implementation, and guarantee mechanisms). Quantitative indicators in previous plans mainly cover five areas: economic development, people's well - being, ecological environment, innovation drive, and security [10]. 3.3 "15th Five - Year Plan" Key Content Outlook 3.3.1 Economic Growth Target Setting - Long - term growth targets require China to reach the level of a high - income country by the end of the "14th Five - Year Plan" and double its economic aggregate or per - capita income by 2035. As of 2024, China's per - capita GDP was $13,300. To reach the minimum threshold of a moderately developed country ($24,000) by 2035, the average nominal growth rate from 2026 - 2035 should be no less than 5.6% (assuming a 4.5% nominal growth rate in 2025). The actual GDP growth rate from 2026 - 2035 should be around 4%. Market expectations suggest setting a target of around 5% in 2026 and gradually reducing it to 4.8% [17][18][23]. 3.3.2 Key Work Task Deployment - The "15th Five - Year Plan" will continue to focus on economic, institutional, industrial, innovation, people's well - being, and ecological fields. Key areas include institutional reform, technological innovation, domestic demand expansion, green development, and industrial chain security. New quality productivity development is expected to accelerate, and the plan will also address issues such as effective demand shortage and international competition [24][29][30]. 3.4 Five - Year Plan's Market Impact 3.4.1 Five - Year Plans as Investment Mainlines - Five - year plans reshape the economic underlying logic, clarify development priorities, and provide clear investment tracks for the capital market. Different periods have seen different industries thrive, such as traditional cyclical industries during the "11th Five - Year Plan" and technology industries during the "12th" and "13th Five - Year Plans" [33]. 3.4.2 Stock Market Impact - Historically, stock markets have often rallied around the release of five - year plans. Currently, the technology - growth sector has outperformed the market, with some sub - themes like optical modules and AI computing power showing significant excess returns. If the "15th Five - Year Plan" has unexpected content, it will create short - term trading opportunities and support medium - term technology and reform - related investments [35][37]. 3.4.3 Commodity Market Impact - Five - year plans affect commodity supply and demand through national economic logic, industrial policies, and resource security strategies. They have led to a shift in demand from traditional commodities like steel and cement to manufacturing and new - energy - related metals. Supply - side reforms and national policies also influence commodity prices [40].