地方债周报：把握利差收窄机会-20251020

Key Points of the Report 1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the weekly situation of local government bonds in 2025, analyzing the primary and secondary market conditions, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, secondary spreads, and trading volume, to help investors understand the market trends and potential investment opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Primary Market Issuance Situation - Net Financing: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 323 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 198 billion yuan due to a repayment volume of 521 billion yuan. New general bonds were 0 billion yuan, new special bonds were 201 billion yuan, refinancing general bonds were 25 billion yuan, and refinancing special bonds were 97 billion yuan [1][9]. - Issuance Terms: The 20 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion (32%) this week, and the issuance proportion of bonds with a term of 10 years and above was 79%, an increase compared to last week. The 20 - year issuance proportion increased significantly, while the 7 - year decreased by about 43 percentage points [1][11]. - Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds: This week, 62 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 20,233 billion yuan of special bonds to replace hidden debts, with Jiangsu, Guizhou, Hunan, and Henan having 2,511 billion yuan, 1,324 billion yuan, 1,288 billion yuan, and 1,151 billion yuan respectively. Also, 31 billion yuan of special special bonds were issued this week, and as of the end of this week, 12,374 billion yuan of special special bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2025, with Jiangsu, Guangdong, Yunnan, and Hebei issuing 1,189 billion yuan, 1,027 billion yuan, 730 billion yuan, and 702 billion yuan respectively [2][14][17]. - Issuance Spreads: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 16.4bp, narrowing compared to last week. The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread at 24.0bp. The weighted average issuance spread of 10 - year local government bonds narrowed, while that of 7 - year bonds widened. Jilin and Liaoning had a weighted average issuance spread of over 20bp [1][22]. - Fund - Raising Allocations: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of new special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (29%), transportation infrastructure (18%), land reserve (15%), affordable housing projects (12%), and social undertakings (11%). The proportion of land reserve increased by 15% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.9% [2][26]. - Issuance Plan: As of the end of this week, 35 regions have disclosed the local government bond issuance plan for the fourth quarter of 2025, with a total planned issuance scale of 9,313 billion yuan, of which 5,423 billion yuan is for October. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the fourth quarter is 5,832 billion yuan and 3,481 billion yuan respectively. Next week, local government bonds are planned to issue 2,472 billion yuan, with a repayment volume of 815 billion yuan and a net financing of 1,658 billion yuan, an increase of 1,855 billion yuan compared to this week [3][30][34]. Secondary Market Situation - Secondary Spreads: This week, the secondary spreads of 20 - year and 5 - year local government bonds were relatively high, at 16.6bp and 16.4bp respectively. The secondary spreads of 1 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 15 - year local government bonds narrowed, while those of other terms widened. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past 3 years, the historical quantiles of the secondary spreads of 5 - year and 7 - year local government bonds were relatively high, reaching 69% and 74% respectively. Regionally, the secondary spreads of 3 - 7 - year local government bonds in each region were relatively high, all greater than or close to 15bp, and the 15 - 20 - year local government bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively high secondary spreads [4][5][37]. - Trading Volume: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared to last week. Guangdong's local government bonds had a high turnover rate. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 3,086 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.58%. Guangdong's local government bonds had a large trading volume of 601 billion yuan and the highest turnover rate of 1.7%, higher than Ningxia's 1.1% [5][42].