2025年9月财政数据点评：税收收入稳步增长，中央财政安排5000亿下达地方

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly and has entered the horizontal part of the second L-shaped curve [7] - Structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [7] - There will be a continuous switch in stock - bond allocation: bond yields and the stock market are expected to rise continuously [7] Summary by Related Catalogs General Public Budget Income - In September, general public budget income increased by 2.6% year - on - year, with central income up 3.5% and local income up 2.0% [4] - Tax revenue increased by 8.7% year - on - year, maintaining positive growth for 6 consecutive months. Except for some taxes, most tax types improved compared to August [4] - Securities trading stamp duty revenue continued to soar, with a year - on - year increase of 342.4% due to active stock market trading and a low base in 2024 [4] - Enterprise income tax increased by 19.6% year - on - year, driven by market vitality and improved industrial enterprise profits [4] - Non - tax revenue decreased by 11.4% year - on - year in September [4] Expenditure - In September, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.1% year - on - year, with central expenditure up 3.2% and local expenditure up 3.1% [5] - Infrastructure expenditure items such as urban and rural community affairs and agriculture, forestry and water affairs still declined, but the decline narrowed, driving the increase in fiscal expenditure [5] Governmental Fund Budget Income - In September, governmental fund income increased by 5.6% year - on - year, with central income up 2.4% and local income up 5.9% [6] - Land transfer income decreased by 1.0% year - on - year in September, and the cumulative decline from January to September was 4.2%, reaching the peak in 2025 [6] Expenditure - In September, governmental fund expenditure increased by 0.4% year - on - year, with central expenditure up 19.7% and local expenditure down 0.3% [6] - Land transfer expenditure decreased by 3.1% year - on - year in September, and the growth rate of governmental fund expenditure slowed down compared to August [6] Market - The market was insensitive to fundamental data. On October 17, affected by the US regional bank credit fraud event, the long - term yield trended downwards during the day [7] - The bond market trading may still be affected by the performance of the equity market and the implementation of regulations on fund redemption fees [7]