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三季度和9月经济数据点评:经济“温差”如何影响宏观调控?
Soochow Securities·2025-10-20 08:55

Economic Growth - Q3 GDP growth rate is 4.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 5.2% for the first three quarters, indicating resilience in the economy[3] - Industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, up from 5.2% in August, while the service production index remained stable at 5.6%[3] - Exports exceeded expectations with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% in September, compared to 4.3% in August, surpassing the consensus forecast of 5.9%[3] Demand and Investment - Domestic demand remains under pressure, with retail sales growth declining from 3.4% in August to 3.0% in September, below the expected 3.1%[3] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5%, down from a growth of 0.5% in August, indicating a weakening investment environment[3] - Real estate investment continues to struggle, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 13.9% in September, worsening from -12.9% in August[4] Price Pressure and Policy Implications - The GDP deflator index improved slightly from -1.3% in Q2 to -1.1% in Q3, reflecting a balance between downward price pressure and "anti-involution" policies[3] - The potential for monetary policy easing remains, with possibilities for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to stimulate demand[3] - Recent policy measures, including 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools and another 500 billion yuan in special bonds, are expected to boost investment growth[3] Consumer Behavior - Per capita income growth slowed from 5.1% in Q2 to 4.5% in Q3, with property income growth turning negative at -0.3%[4] - Per capita consumption growth also declined from 5.2% in Q2 to 3.4% in Q3, with a corresponding drop in consumption propensity to 68.1%[4] - Service consumption growth outpaced goods consumption, with service retail growth at 5.0% in Q3 compared to goods retail growth of only 3.6%[4]