需求持续不振，尿素震荡下行

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The demand for urea continues to be weak, and the price is oscillating downward. The market sentiment is generally low, with mainstream urea spot ex - factory quotes falling and trading being mediocre [5]. - Some urea production devices are under maintenance, and the daily output has dropped to around 187,000 tons. The export window is about to close, and the impact on the domestic market sentiment is limited [5]. - The compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grassroots stocking is winding up, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low. The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased to around 1.61 million tons, remaining at a high level [5]. - In the short term, the domestic demand is still limited, the agricultural demand has ended, and the compound fertilizer has not started production on a large scale. The spot market sentiment remains sluggish. Although the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is still large, it only provides some support to the domestic spot market [5]. - The ex - factory prices of some manufacturers have been lowered, but the order intake is still weak. The fundamentals are still relatively loose, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Overview: The demand for urea is weak, and the price is oscillating downward. Different regions have different price trends. The overall supply is loose, and the demand is declining. The trading strategy is to short on rebounds in the short - term for single - side trading, and to remain on the sidelines for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [5]. - Core Data Changes - Supply: In the 41st week of 2025 (October 9 - 15), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 83.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.74%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 70.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.64%. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate of urea was 83.82%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51% [6]. - Demand: In the 42nd week of 2025 (October 10 - 16), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 55.18%, a decrease of 10.29 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 24.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.32 percentage points. As of October 17, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer producers in Linyi, Shandong was 400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 220 tons or 35.46%. As of October 15, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.71 days, a decrease of 0.29 days from the previous period [6]. - Inventory: On October 15, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.6154 million tons, an increase of 171,500 tons or 11.88% from the previous week. As of October 16, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 446,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons or 7.47% from the previous week [6]. - Valuation: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal is firm, the price of Yulin pulverized coal has risen, the spot price of urea has fallen. The fixed - bed production incurs a loss of 110 yuan/ton, the coal - water slurry production incurs a loss of 80 yuan/ton, and the fluidized - bed production has a profit of 150 yuan/ton. The futures are oscillating, with a basis of - 100 yuan/ton and a 1 - 5 spread of - 70 yuan/ton [6]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking The report only lists the sub - items such as "Mainstream Manufacturer Ex - factory Prices", "Basis", "Regional Spread", etc., but no specific content for these sub - items is provided in the given text, so a detailed summary cannot be made.