Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Stella International, but it indicates a positive outlook based on strong order visibility and capacity expansion plans. Core Insights - Stella International reported total revenue of USD 1.179 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.7%. In the third quarter alone, revenue reached USD 402 million, up 3.7% year-over-year, driven by a 7.8% increase in shipment volume, although partially offset by a 3.8% decline in average selling price (ASP) [1][6][7]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Shipment Performance - In 3Q25, the footwear manufacturing revenue was USD 392 million, marking a 3.6% year-over-year increase, with shipment volume approximately 13.9 million pairs, up 7.8% year-over-year. The growth in shipment volume was influenced by a low base effect from the previous year due to early shipments related to the Paris Olympics [2][7]. ASP and Product Mix - The ASP for the quarter was around USD 28.2 per pair, down 3.8% year-over-year, primarily due to a shift in product mix towards lower-priced sports footwear. Management noted that ASP changes are mainly driven by customer mix rather than raw material costs, with potential for recovery if new capacity is allocated to high-end clients [3][4][8]. Capacity Expansion and Customer Demand - Management highlighted that new sports brands have joined as customers, and fourth-quarter orders are largely secured, indicating high order visibility for the next two to three years. The company plans to accelerate capacity expansion to meet this demand while optimizing resource allocation [3][8][9]. Operational Efficiency - The efficiency of factories in Indonesia and the Philippines is improving, with the Indonesian factory showing continuous improvement since June. The Philippine factory has reduced production lines to prioritize stable yield, adhering to a principle of minimizing waste [9][10]. Cost Management and Capital Expenditure - Cost pressures remain manageable, with an estimated tariff sharing impact of around USD 8 million for 2025. Management plans to adopt a more cautious approach to capital expenditure, with expectations for an increase to support mid- to long-term growth needs [10][11]. Shareholder Returns - The company commits to maintaining a payout ratio of around 70% in 2025 and 2026, with additional returns to shareholders through share repurchases and special dividends, aiming to restore profit margins to normalized levels close to 12% [11].
九兴控股（01836）：3Q25客户订单强劲，扩产效率稳步提升