有色金属早报：逆周期调节持续加码，震荡为主-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Due to the combination of the stock - bond seesaw and loose liquidity counter - cyclical adjustments, bond futures operations are more difficult, and the bond market shows obvious oscillation characteristics. The future trend of the bond market is still mainly influenced by these two factors [2]. - The economic data released recently indicates that the downward pressure on the economy is still large, which provides long - term support for the bond market. The government's counter - cyclical adjustment measures and the central bank's loose monetary policy are double - edged swords for the bond market. Loose liquidity is beneficial to the bond market, especially the short - end bond market [2]. - Geopolitical risks give way to economic downward risks, and the bond market may see more favorable factors driven by risk - aversion factors. The overall bond market remains oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the impact of the stock - bond seesaw on the bond market. If the upward momentum of the stock market weakens, the bond market may enter an upward channel again [3]. - Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the bond market may be in a pattern of oscillating with a slight upward trend [31]. Summary by Directory 1. Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the bond market into a continuous downward trend, but on the weekly level, it shows a high - level oscillatory trend. On the daily level, it is at the neckline position of the long - term high - level oscillation and has the need for an oscillatory rebound. The combination of abundant liquidity logic and the stock - bond seesaw logic makes bond market operations more difficult [9]. 2. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - In September, China's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.3% year - on - year. The core CPI rose 1% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fifth consecutive month. PPI remained flat month - on - month and fell 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months [13]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical adjustments more effectively, expand domestic demand, and create a first - class industrial ecosystem [13][15]. - In the first three quarters of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value was 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The import and export growth rate accelerated quarter by quarter. In September, the total import and export value was 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%, the highest monthly growth rate this year [15]. - In September, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.64% month - on - month. From January to September, it increased by 6.2% year - on - year [15]. - From January to September 2025, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371,535 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. In September, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.07% month - on - month [15]. - China's social consumer goods retail in September was 4,197.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 36,587.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [16]. 3. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamental - In September, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.64% month - on - month. China's social consumer goods retail in September was 4,197.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The overall economic data shows that the endogenous driving force of the economy is strengthening, and the downward pressure on the economy has weakened. If counter - cyclical adjustments continue to increase, the economic fundamentals will be bearish for the bond market in the long run [17]. 3.2 Policy Aspect - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to ensure abundant liquidity, support consumption and investment, and maintain the stability of the financial market and the RMB exchange rate. In August, the M1 - M2 scissors gap narrowed, indicating an increase in economic activities. The growth rate of social financing stock slightly increased, and the monthly new social financing mainly relied on government bond issuance [19]. 3.3 Capital Aspect - Since July 25, DR007 has been continuously declining, and the cost of funds has decreased. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain abundant liquidity. The Fed's potential interest rate cuts in the second half of the year may provide more room for domestic monetary policy easing, but the adjustment of monetary policy still depends on domestic demand. The probability of an unexpectedly loose monetary policy is low, but it remains an option if necessary [22]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in this July and formulate a detailed plan for the use of national subsidy funds. The special treasury bond funds for equipment renewal this year amount to 200 billion yuan, with the first batch of about 173 billion yuan allocated to about 7,500 projects in 16 fields. The issuance of special bonds has accelerated recently, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [24]. 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond cost - performance ratio has broken through the short - term oscillatory range and declined, indicating that the market pays more attention to the stock market and the risk appetite has increased. Although the stock - bond cost - performance ratio has slightly decreased recently, it is still in a high - level range. Whether it will continue to decline needs continuous observation. Short - term bonds are more affected by the capital aspect, while long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [27]. 4. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The international environment for China's A - shares has become extremely complex, and short - term fluctuations may increase, but the long - term upward trend is generally recognized. The impact of the stock - bond seesaw on the bond market has become more complex. Under the background of continuous Fed interest rate cuts, the combined effect of the stock - bond seesaw and liquidity logic makes bond market operations more difficult. In the fourth quarter, the bond market may be in a pattern of oscillating with a slight upward trend [31].