钢材期货周度报告：盘面价格震荡，注意政策扰动-20251020

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices fluctuated and declined. In the first half of the week, the market sentiment was weak due to large inventory pressure and unmet demand expectations. In the second half of the week, the market sentiment slightly recovered, and the price decline was small. As of October 17, the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton [2][4]. - In the future, the steel market may present a pattern of weak supply and demand. Steel prices still face significant upward pressure and may fluctuate with limited upside and downside potential [26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated and declined this week. In the first half of the week, the market sentiment was weak because of large inventory pressure and unmet demand expectations, but the raw material side provided some support. In the second half of the week, the market sentiment slightly recovered, and the price decline was small. As of October 17, the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan/ton [2][4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - The Chinese government emphasizes counter - cyclical regulation, expanding domestic demand, and improving the industrial ecosystem [6]. - China and the United States will hold a new round of economic and trade consultations [6]. - In the first three quarters of this year, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Exports were 19.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%; imports were 13.66 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Exports increased by 8.4% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.5% year - on - year [6]. - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan; M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year; the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [6]. - In September, China's PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year and remained flat month - on - month. CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month [7]. - The World Steel Association expects global steel demand in 2025 to be flat compared to 2024, reaching about 1.75 billion tons. The decline in China's steel demand is expected to slow down, and steel demand in developing economies such as India, Vietnam, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia will grow strongly. European steel demand will experience a long - awaited recovery [7]. - On October 17, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% new tariff on imported medium and heavy trucks and parts starting from November 1. He also said that a 10% tariff will be imposed on imported passenger cars [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials in the past two weeks was 97,800 tons, lower than last week's 99,900 tons. The overall market trading was weak, terminal purchasing willingness was low, and the spot trading price was getting closer to the low level [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The current daily average hot metal output of blast furnaces is still above 2.4 million tons. Steel mills are generally in a state of small profit or loss. It is expected that the supply side will continue to shrink, which is conducive to alleviating the supply - demand contradiction. The steel market may present a pattern of weak supply and demand in the future, and steel prices may fluctuate with limited upside and downside potential [26]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for steel profits, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for option strategies, use a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][26].