Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and geopolitical factors both point to downward pressure on oil prices. The supply side shows that OPEC+ is continuing to increase oil production, Russian supply remains at a high level, and US shale oil production is also at a relatively high level. The demand side indicates that the global demand growth rate is slowing down, and the international energy market may experience an oversupply situation in 2026. Geopolitically, the first - stage cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel has been reached, and there are discussions about ending the Ukraine conflict. However, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is crucial. If more consensus can be reached, market risk - aversion sentiment will cool down, and oil prices may get short - term support [2][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil showed a volatile and weak trend. The SC2512 contract opened at 458 for the week, reached a high of 459, a low of 433, and closed at 435, with a weekly decline of 28 or 6.23% [3] Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 OPEC: OPEC+ Maintains the Stance of Increasing Production - In September, OPEC's daily crude oil production was 28.44 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 524,000 barrels, with Saudi Arabia's daily production increasing by 248,000 barrels. OPEC+ members' daily crude oil production was 43.05 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 630,000 barrels. The global daily oil supply in September reached 108 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 760,000 barrels, with OPEC+ countries' production increasing by 1 million barrels. It is expected that the global daily oil supply will increase by 3 million barrels this year to 106.1 million barrels per day and by 2.4 million barrels next year. Non - OPEC+ countries' production is expected to increase by 1.6 million barrels and 1.2 million barrels respectively in the next two years [5] - On October 1st, the 62nd JMMC meeting was held. Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Kazakhstan, Oman, and Russia updated their compensation production - cut plans from September 2025 to June 2026. From September to December 2025, the planned compensation production cuts are 232,000, 203,000, 266,000, and 303,000 barrels per day respectively. The 63rd JMMC meeting will be held on November 30th. On October 5th, eight voluntarily - production - cutting OPEC+ countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the next meeting of these eight countries will be held on November 2nd [6] 2.2 Russia: Gradually Implementing Production Cuts, Pay Attention to the Evolution of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In 2025, it is expected to be between 515 million and 520 million tons. President Putin said on October 16th that the 2025 production is expected to be 5.1 billion tons, about 1% less than last year, but the overall supply remains at a high level. In August 2025, Russia's crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 barrels per day, and the remaining production capacity was 120,000 barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 barrels per day. Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia has the potential to increase oil production [7] - Russia's crude oil exports are at a high level. As of the four - week period ending on October 12th, the average daily shipment from Russian ports was 3.74 million barrels, the highest since June 2023. IEA data shows that in September, Russia's crude oil exports increased by 370,000 barrels per day to 5.1 million barrels per day [7] 2.3 US: Stable Production - As of the week ending on October 10th, the US daily crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels, an increase of 7,000 barrels from the previous week and 136,000 barrels from the same period last year. As of the week ending on October 17th, the number of active oil - drilling rigs in the US was 418, the same as the previous week and 64 less than the same period last year [8] - The EIA estimates that from the third quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, the average daily global oil inventory build - up will exceed 2 million barrels. It is predicted that the low oil prices at the beginning of 2026 will lead to a decrease in the supply of OPEC+ and some non - OPEC producers, and inventory adjustments will be made later in 2026. The average Brent crude oil price next year is predicted to be $51 per barrel [8] 2.4 American Production Increase May Dominate Future Supply Growth - The IEA expects that the daily crude oil production of non - OPEC+ countries will increase by 1.6 million barrels and 1.2 million barrels respectively this year and next year, with significant increases in the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina. According to the current production agreement, OPEC+'s daily crude oil production will increase by 1.4 million barrels in 2025 and a further 1.2 million barrels per day next year. The IEA believes that next year's global daily oil supply will be about 4 million barrels higher than demand [14] 2.5 Inventory: Stable - As of July 2025, the OECD commercial inventory was 2.761 billion barrels, an increase of 2.4 million barrels from the previous month. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 66.5 million barrels, 128.5 million barrels less than the average of the past five years, and 208.6 million barrels less than the average from 2015 - 2019 [14] - As of the week ending on October 10th, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 831.53 million barrels, an increase of 4.284 million barrels from the previous week. The US commercial crude oil inventory was 423.785 million barrels, an increase of 3.524 million barrels from the previous week. The US gasoline inventory was 218.826 million barrels, a decrease of 268,000 barrels from the previous week. API data shows that as of the week ending on October 10th, the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels, the gasoline inventory increased by 2.99 million barrels, and the distillate inventory decreased by 4.79 million barrels [15] 2.6 Consumption: Marginally Weak Demand - OPEC estimates that the global daily oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels this year and 1.38 million barrels next year. The global economic growth expectations for 2025 and 2026 are maintained at 3% and 3.1% respectively [21] - The IEA estimates that in the third quarter of 2025, the global daily oil demand increased by 750,000 barrels year - on - year due to the recovery of demand in the petrochemical raw material industry, recovering from the 420,000 - barrel - per - day level in the second quarter affected by tariffs. However, in the remaining part of 2025 and 2026, the global daily oil consumption will remain low, with an expected annual increase of about 700,000 barrels per day, far lower than the historical average due to the more severe macro - economic environment and the electrification trend in the transportation sector [21] - The US refinery's crude oil processing volume is 15.13 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17 million barrels per day, and the refinery's operating rate is 85.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% [21] 2.7 Refined Oil Processing Fees Strengthen Slightly - The average refining profit of Shandong local refineries this period is 225.77 yuan per ton, a decrease of 23.42 yuan per ton from the previous period. The average refining profit of major refineries this period is 547.82 yuan per ton, a decrease of 71.31 yuan per ton from the previous period [23] 2.8 Refinery Operating Rates at a Low Level - As of the week ending on October 9th, 2025, the US refinery's crude oil processing volume was 16.476 million barrels per day, an increase of 52,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the refinery's operating rate was 93.00%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous week [26] - This week, the average operating load of major domestic refineries in China is 81.23%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points from the previous week. The average operating load of the atmospheric and vacuum distillation units of Shandong local refineries is 50.28%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week [26] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The supply side shows that OPEC+ is continuing to increase oil production, Russian supply remains at a high level, and US shale oil production is also at a relatively high level. The demand side indicates that the global demand growth rate is slowing down, and the international energy market may experience an oversupply situation in 2026. Geopolitically, the first - stage cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel has been reached, and there are discussions about ending the Ukraine conflict. Overall, both supply and geopolitical factors point to downward pressure on oil prices. The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is crucial. If more consensus can be reached, market risk - aversion sentiment will cool down, and oil prices may get short - term support [35]
原油供需仍弱，关注中美经贸
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-10-20 08:56