银河期货煤炭日报-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The coal price is expected to rise in the short - term as the coal production in major producing areas recovers, power plant inventories are being depleted, import profits are available, and power plants only maintain necessary purchases. Also, port prices have been rising, and pit - mouth prices are firm [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On October 20, the port thermal coal market continued to rise strongly. The 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 765 - 775 yuan/ton, 5000 - kcal at 670 - 685 yuan/ton, and 4500 - kcal at 575 - 585 yuan/ton in the market. Different regions had different price ranges for various coal types [3]. Important News - In September, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 410 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, and the decline was 1.4 percentage points narrower than that in August. From January to September, the output was 3.57 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.0% [4]. Logical Analysis - Supply: The impact of rainfall in the northwest has subsided, and the coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia have increased. As of October 20, the operating rate in Ordos was 71%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily average output of the two cities was over 4 million tons, but the overall domestic supply tightened [5]. - Import: Affected by the improvement of domestic coal prices, the sentiment in the import market continued to pick up this week. Coastal power plants were more active in inquiring about goods, and the market transaction atmosphere improved significantly [5]. - Demand: The southern region has entered the cooling mode, and the north has fully entered the heating season. The coal - using pressure of thermal enterprises and power plants has increased. Power plants still give priority to fulfilling long - term contract coal and are cautious about purchasing market coal [5]. - Inventory: Railway transportation has returned to normal. The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line is 1 million tons, and the number of approved carriages of the Hohhot Railway Bureau is around 20. Port inventory is generally stable. As of October 20, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 22.31 million tons, at a neutral level over the years. Coastal power plant daily consumption has decreased seasonally, and inventory is stable, while inland power plant inventory is still high [5].