周报：基本面阶段改善，钢价低位震荡运行-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the holiday, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased. The production of rebar decreased while demand increased, and the apparent demand rebounded significantly due to the low - base effect, with inventory turning from an increase to a decrease. The increase in hot - rolled coil inventory slowed down. The fundamentals improved month - on - month, but the sustainability of demand is questionable. In the short term, there is no obvious negative feedback pressure, and steel prices will fluctuate weakly at a low level [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from Australia and Brazil increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume decreased. The molten iron output decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a high level year - on - year. The port inventory continued to rise slightly, and the overall inventory accumulation was limited. Supported by high molten iron output, the fundamentals are not under obvious pressure, and prices are more affected by macro and terminal demand, showing short - term weak fluctuations [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the production of coking coal in the main producing areas has mostly returned to normal, and the overall supply has not changed much. The demand for coking coal has slightly improved, and there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure at present. Coke enterprises' profits have shrunk, and the second round of price increases has started, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises. High molten iron output at the same period provides some support for the prices of coking coal and coke, and they should be treated as range - bound [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In the first week after the holiday, affected by tariff sentiment, steel prices declined overall. The inventory of the five major steel products decreased, with rebar showing reduced production and increased demand, and the apparent demand rebounding significantly due to the low - base effect. The increase in hot - rolled coil inventory slowed down. However, due to the suppression of macro - sentiment by tariffs and the concentrated delivery in the middle of the month, the prices of the black series declined under pressure [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - Production: National rebar weekly output was 201.16 tons (down 1.10% month - on - month and 17.58% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 321.84 tons (down 0.45% month - on - month and up 5.42% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace production decreased, while electric furnace production increased. The blast furnace operating rate remained stable, and the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly [16][18][23]. - Profit: Rebar profit was - 66 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan/ton week - on - week and 348 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was - 57 yuan/ton (down 65 yuan/ton week - on - week and 20 yuan/ton year - on - year) [32]. - Demand: Rebar apparent consumption was 219.75 tons (up 43.46% month - on - month and down 9.75% year - on - year), the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 9.78 tons (down 6.29% month - on - month and 13.80% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 315.55 tons (up 6.96% month - on - month and down 1.00% year - on - year) [37]. - Inventory: Rebar inventory turned from an increase to a decrease, with both factory and social inventories declining. Hot - rolled coil inventory increase slowed down, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory rising slightly [41][46]. - Downstream: In the real estate sector, the transaction of commercial housing improved, but the land market transaction remained weak. In September 2025, automobile production and sales continued to rise both month - on - month and year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The shipment from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2825 tons (up 5.94% month - on - month and 14.81% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2519.4 tons (down 17.28% month - on - month and up 5.69% year - on - year) [60]. - Demand: Molten iron daily output was 240.95 tons (down 0.59 tons month - on - month and up 6.59 tons year - on - year), the ore - unloading volume at 45 ports was 315.72 tons (down 3.45% month - on - month and 3.12% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 30.21 days (down 0.10% month - on - month and 3.08% year - on - year) [65]. - Inventory: The inventory at 45 ports was 14278.27 tons (up 1.81% month - on - month and down 6.93% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8982.73 tons (down 0.70% month - on - month and 0.27% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 23.92 days (up 1.74% month - on - month and 14.94% year - on - year) [71]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 87.33% (up 6.64% month - on - month and down 1.48% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal - washing plants was 35.79% (up 1.33% month - on - month and down 15.59% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 15.30 tons (down 13.71% month - on - month and up 36.84% year - on - year) [77]. - Demand: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 61.59 (down 38.41% week - on - week and 19.15% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 89.33% (down 4.69% week - on - week and up 28.15% year - on - year) [80]. - Coke Enterprises: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 13 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan/ton month - on - month and 37 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 74.24% (down 1.25% month - on - month and unchanged year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mills' coke was 84.72% (down 0.95% month - on - month and 2.06% year - on - year) [86]. - Coking Coal Inventory: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 852.98 tons (up 4.13% month - on - month and 10.38% year - on - year), the steel mills' coking coal inventory was 788.50 tons (up 0.97% month - on - month and 7.36% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 272.71 tons (down 7.55% month - on - month and 33.58% year - on - year) [92]. - Coke Inventory: The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 37.59 tons (down 11.64% month - on - month and 1.36% year - on - year), the steel mills' coke inventory was 639.44 tons (down 1.75% month - on - month and up 13.58% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 195.15 tons (up 0.03% month - on - month and 8.28% year - on - year) [98]. - Spot Price: Coke started the second - round price increase, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1550 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 250 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1390 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month and down 400 yuan/ton year - on - year) [103]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The rebar basis widened, and the hot - rolled coil 1 - 5 spread narrowed. The coil - to - rebar spread slightly decreased, and the coking coal and coke 1 - 5 spreads slightly increased [105][111].