碳酸锂周报：碳酸锂市场震荡上行，供应增量与需求韧性博弈-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate price is expected to oscillate between 74,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with attention on the continuous game between supply increment and demand resilience. The current market is in an upward phase after breaking through the oscillation range, and the core contradiction lies in the game between the 4.32% increase in supply - side capacity utilization rate and the high - growth in demand - side new energy vehicle sales. Inventory depletion supports the price to break through the upper limit of the original oscillation range, but the significant decline in open interest indicates that funds are cautious about continuous growth [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Introduction - Price Changes: The weekly average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3.41% to 75,750 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed to 50 yuan/ton (a 90.2% week - on - week decrease). The main futures contract rose 4.07% to 75,700 yuan/ton, with open interest dropping 28.35% to 159,000 lots. The prices of other lithium salts also showed different degrees of increase, such as the price of electric - carbon lithium hydroxide increasing by 0.81% - 0.76% [2][4] - Price Premium and Discount Changes: For raw materials, the premium and discount of mica - based materials increased by 100, and that of salt - lake and recycled materials increased by 200; for enterprises, the premium and discount of Ganfeng Lithium decreased by 100, and that of Jiuling Lithium decreased by 200 [7] Lithium Salt Fundamentals Supply - China's Lithium Carbonate Production: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate reached 74.39% (a 4.32% week - on - week increase), and the weekly output of 20,635 tons hit a record high [2] - Production by Region and Raw Material Source: Not detailed in the provided content - China's Lithium Hydroxide Production: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - Mid - and Down - stream Consumption: In September, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 22.9% year - on - year, and the retail sales in the first half of October reached 367,000 units, remaining at a high level, but downstream procurement weakened after the holiday [2] Import and Export - Lithium Ore Import: The port inventory of lithium ore decreased by 5.17% to 55,000 tons week - on - week, and the import cost support still exists [2] - Lithium Ore Transportation: The freight rates from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria remained unchanged week - on - week [28] - Lithium Ore Transportation Cost: The freight rates for bulk and container transportation from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria remained stable [28] - Lithium Carbonate Import and Export: Not detailed in the provided content - Seasonal Changes in Import and Export: Not detailed in the provided content - Lithium Hydroxide Import and Export: Not detailed in the provided content Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Social Inventory: Not detailed in the provided content - Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 11,983 week - on - week, with significant decreases in some warehouses such as Shanghai Xiangyu Speed - Transfer Warehouse and COSCO Shipping Nanchang Warehouse [41] Cost and Profit - Lithium Carbonate: The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate was 74,294 yuan/ton, and the production profit decreased by 244.19% week - on - week to 1,456 yuan/ton, with the profit margin significantly narrowing [2] Lithium - Battery Fundamentals Market - Cathode Materials: Not detailed in the provided content Supply - Cathode Material Production: Not detailed in the provided content - Electrolyte Price and Production: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - Cathode Material Consumption: Not detailed in the provided content Import and Export - Lithium - Battery Materials: Not detailed in the provided content - Batteries: Not detailed in the provided content Cost and Profit - Ternary Materials: Not detailed in the provided content Lithium - Battery Recycling**: Not detailed in the provided content New Energy Vehicles - Production and Sales - In September, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 22.9% year - on - year, and the retail sales in the first half of October reached 367,000 units, remaining at a high level [2]