烧碱周报：现货相对坚挺，盘面偏弱运行-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro: In September, China's economic data was gradually released, the US government continued to be in a "shutdown" state with key economic data missing, and Fed officials gradually signaled interest - rate cuts [4]. - Supply - demand: In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, some plants are expected to enter maintenance, tightening market supply, and with the approaching demand procurement cycle, liquid caustic soda prices are expected to rise steadily. In Shandong, with the shipment of orders from other provinces and the decline in enterprise inventories, some enterprises may continue to raise prices. The low - concentration caustic soda market is expected to rise slightly, while the high - concentration caustic soda may be sold at lower prices [4]. - Overall logic: Recently, the spot price in Shandong has been relatively strong, but there is a certain expectation of production cuts in the alumina industry. Coupled with the improvement of enterprise profits due to the recovery of liquid chlorine prices, the caustic soda 2601 contract will continue to be under pressure and run weakly [4]. - Strategy advice: For the caustic soda 2601 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 2600 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2300 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Spot market: From 2024/10 to 2025/10, data on the market prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, the price difference of 32% caustic soda between Shandong and Jiangsu, and Shandong and Zhejiang were presented. Also, data on the basis, the market prices of flake caustic soda (99%) in Shandong and the northwest, the market prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda and raw salt in Shandong, and the market prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong were shown [9][12]. - Futures market: From 2024/10 to 2025/10, data on the futures closing prices of caustic soda, alumina, PVC, and soda ash, the number of caustic soda warehouse receipts were presented [15]. - Weekly market review (20251010 - 20251016): The prices, price changes, and price change rates of products such as raw salt, liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, liquid chlorine, alumina, viscose staple fiber, and lithium hydroxide were provided. For example, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong increased from 815 yuan/ton to 830 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.84%, and the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased from - 100 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 150% [18]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side - Output and operating rate: From 20251010 - 1016, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.4%, a decrease of 2.6% compared to the previous period. Loads in the northwest, north, east, south, and northeast regions all declined [20]. - Supply side - Enterprise maintenance situation: Enterprises in various regions such as Henan, Shandong, Tianjin, and Liaoning have maintenance plans, with different maintenance times and durations [22]. - Downstream demand: In the alumina industry, due to high profits in the electrolytic aluminum industry and shrinking profits in the alumina industry, electrolytic aluminum plants have made small - scale purchases for replenishment, but the transaction price is still declining. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry decreased by 1.02% week - on - week [26]. - Inventory: As of 20251016, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 403,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 4.25% compared to the previous period and an increase of 13.83% compared to the same period last year. The inventory situation varied in different regions [29]. - Liquid chlorine: As of October 16, 2025, the average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 86 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.43%. The liquid chlorine market is expected to be stable with a downward trend in the near future. As of October 17, 2025, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.69%, and it is expected to rise to 78.47% this week [33]. - Chlor - alkali cost - profit: From 20251010 - 20251016, the average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 394 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15.54% [34].