供应预期支撑，焦煤偏强震荡：煤焦日报-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Coke: As of the week ending October 17, the combined daily average coke production of coking plants and steel mills was 1.1123 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 12,700 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.4095 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5,900 tons. The coke inventories of upstream and downstream industries decreased. The inventory of all independent coking plants was 572,900 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 65,500 tons, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.3944 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 113,800 tons. Overall, both supply and demand of coke decreased, with a more significant reduction on the supply side, and the overall industrial chain inventory decreased. The fundamentals are relatively neutral, and the upward driving force mainly comes from the supply support of coking coal at the cost end and the expected policy benefits [6][34]. - Coking Coal: As of the week ending October 17, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 779,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 27,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 6,000 tons. At the import end, the Ganqimaodu Port resumed operation on October 8, with the daily traffic volume returning to around 1,100 - 1,300 vehicles. At the demand end, the combined daily average coke production of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.1123 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 12,700 tons. In terms of inventory, downstream coking plants and steel mills actively purchased this week, and the coking coal inventory was transferred downstream. As of the week ending October 17, the coking coal inventory of all independent coking plants was 9.9737 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 383,100 tons, and the coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.8832 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 71,900 tons. Overall, the fundamentals of coking coal lack support, but recent weather and anti - involution impacts in the main production areas have caused disturbances, driving the main coking coal futures contract to maintain a relatively strong volatile operation [7][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China began in Beijing on the morning of the 20th. General Secretary Xi Jinping delivered a work report on behalf of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and explained the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (Discussion Draft)" to the plenary session [9]. - On October 20, the price of coking coal in the Jinzhong market remained stable. The ex - factory price of medium - sulfur main coking clean coal with specifications A10.5, S1.3, V25, G80, CSR65, and petrographic 0.15 was 1,300 yuan/ton including tax in cash [10]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - First - Grade FOB) | 1,520 | 0.00% | 3.40% | - 10.06% | - 21.65% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Ex - Warehouse) | 1,460 | 1.39% | 0.00% | - 9.88% | - 20.65% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,260 | - 1.56% | - 1.56% | 6.78% | - 20.25% | | Coking Coal (Australian - Produced in Jingtang Port) | 1,540 | 1.32% | - 4.35% | 3.36% | - 16.76% | | Coking Coal (Shanxi - Produced in Jingtang Port) | 1,660 | 0.00% | - 2.92% | 8.50% | - 14.87% | [11] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,710.0 | 1.63 | 1,738.0 | 1,685.0 | 26,668 | 6,177 | 40,175 | - 560 | | Coking Coal | - | 1,216.0 | 2.66 | 1,238.5 | 1,187.0 | 1,072,864 | 202,940 | 618,806 | 12,271 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - Coke Inventory: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke total inventory, and total coke inventory over the years [15][16][17][18]. - Coking Coal Inventory: Charts show the mine - mouth coking coal inventory, port coking coal inventory, 247 sample steel mill coking coal inventory, and all independent coking plant coking coal inventory over the years [21][24][26][31]. - Other Charts: Charts show domestic steel mill production (including blast furnace operating rate and steel mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire rod and screw steel procurement volume, coal washing plant production (including clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking plant operating conditions (including coke production profit and coke oven capacity utilization rate) [28][29][32][33]. 3.5后市研判 - The analysis of coke and coking coal is the same as the core viewpoints, including production, demand, inventory, and overall situation analysis [34][35].