Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated at a low level, with a daily decline of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not been substantially improved, the pressure of inventory reduction is relatively large, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.12%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. At present, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil is relatively large, and the demand toughness is weakening. The supply-demand pattern continues to deteriorate. The relatively positive factor is cost support. Under the game between weak reality and cost support, the price of hot-rolled coil will continue to seek a bottom weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated. It recorded a daily decline of 0.58%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. At present, the supply of iron ore remains at a high level, while industrial concerns persist, and demand is expected to decrease. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are beginning to weaken. High-valued iron ore prices are likely to be under pressure and run weakly. However, due to the high level of rigid demand, there is resistance to the downward movement. It is expected that the trend will show a high-level oscillatory decline. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year-on-year. The preliminary accounting shows that the GDP in the first three quarters was 1,015,036 billion yuan. Calculated at constant prices, it increased by 5.2% year-on-year. By industry, the added value of the primary industry was 580.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%; the added value of the secondary industry was 3,640.2 billion yuan, an increase of 4.9%; the added value of the tertiary industry was 5,929.55 billion yuan, an increase of 5.4%. By quarter, the GDP in the first quarter increased by 5.4% year-on-year, 5.2% in the second quarter, and 4.8% in the third quarter. From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, the GDP in the third quarter increased by 1.1% [6]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the industrial added value of large-scale industries in China from January to September increased by 6.2% year-on-year. In September, the actual year-on-year growth of the industrial added value of large-scale industries was 6.5% (the growth rate of added value is the actual growth rate after deducting price factors). From a month-on-month perspective, in September, the industrial added value of large-scale industries increased by 0.64% compared with the previous month. From January to September, the industrial added value of large-scale industries increased by 6.2% year-on-year. By major categories, in September, the added value of the mining industry increased by 6.4% year-on-year, the manufacturing industry increased by 7.3%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 0.6%. By economic type, in September, the added value of state-owned holding enterprises increased by 6.5% year-on-year; joint-stock enterprises increased by 6.8%, foreign-invested enterprises and enterprises invested by Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan increased by 5.8%; private enterprises increased by 4.6% [7]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel output in the first three quarters was 746.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%. In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%; pig iron output was 66.05 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%; steel output was 124.21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. From January to September, China's crude steel output was 746.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%; pig iron output was 645.86 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%; steel output was 1,103.85 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of various steel products and iron ore-related products are provided, including rebar, hot-rolled coil, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, sea freight, SGX swaps, and Platts Index. The price changes of these products are also given [9]. Futures Market - The futures prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore are presented, including the closing price, daily change rate, highest price, lowest price, trading volume, change in trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [13]. Relevant Charts - Charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including rebar inventory, hot-rolled coil inventory, and iron ore inventory at ports and steel mills, are provided. Charts related to steel mill production, such as blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability, are also included [15][20][31]. 后市研判 - For rebar, the supply-demand pattern has changed. The production of construction steel mills is weakly stable. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 22,400 tons month-on-month, and the supply continued to contract, but the decline rate slowed down. The space for production reduction during the peak season is limited, and the inventory is relatively high, so the positive effect is not strong. At the same time, the demand for rebar rebounded as expected after the festival. The weekly apparent demand increased significantly month-on-month, but the high-frequency daily trading volume was sluggish. Both are still at the lowest levels in recent years, and the downstream industries have not improved. The peak season is expected to be lackluster, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged. In short, in the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not been substantially improved, the pressure of inventory reduction is relatively large, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [38]. - For hot-rolled coil, the weakening trend of the supply-demand pattern remains unchanged, and the inventory continues to increase. The production of plate steel mills is weakly stable. The weekly output decreased by 14,500 tons month-on-month, and the decline is limited. It is still at a high level this year, and the inventory is high, so the supply pressure is relatively large, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. At the same time, the demand for hot-rolled coil has improved. The weekly apparent demand increased by 245,800 tons month-on-month, but the high-frequency trading volume is still weak. The sustainability of the improvement is questionable, and the contradictions in the downstream cold-rolled industry have not been alleviated. The improvement in external demand is limited, and the demand toughness of hot-rolled coil is weakening. In short, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil is relatively large, and the demand toughness is weakening. The supply-demand pattern continues to deteriorate. The relatively positive factor is cost support. Under the game between weak reality and cost support, the price of hot-rolled coil will continue to seek a bottom weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [38]. - For iron ore, the supply-demand pattern has weakened. The production of steel mills is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore continues to decline from a high level. Last week, the average daily pig iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of the sample steel mills both decreased month-on-month. Although both are still at relatively high levels this year, the contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated, and industrial concerns persist, so the positive effect of demand is weakening. At the same time, the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has declined from a high level, but the overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded. Both are at high levels this year, indicating active supply of foreign ore. Coupled with the recovery of domestic ore supply, the supply pressure of iron ore has increased. In short, the supply of iron ore remains at a high level, while industrial concerns persist, and demand is expected to decrease. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are beginning to weaken. High-valued iron ore prices are likely to be under pressure and run weakly. However, due to the high level of rigid demand, there is resistance to the downward movement. It is expected that the trend will show a high-level oscillatory decline. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [39].
钢材&铁矿石日报：产业矛盾未缓解，钢矿偏弱震荡-20251020
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-10-20 09:29