Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The SR2601 contract is in a phase of fluctuating downward, and the future price center is expected to decline. Globally, the production increase cycle is not over, and the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to remain in a loose pattern. [3] Summary by Directory 产业链操作建议 - Sugar mills with inventory worried about price drops can hedge 100% of unsold inventory by selling SR601 at 5700 yuan/ton and 50% by selling SR601P5300 at 30 yuan/ton. - Traders planning to build inventory can buy 50% of SR601C5700 at 31 yuan/ton to hedge against price increases. - Sugar - using enterprises can follow similar strategies for both procurement and inventory management, and should also pay attention to UNICA bi - weekly data, China Sugar Association's production, sales and inventory data, and customs import data. [5] 日糖周度数据汇总 - Futures prices decreased this week compared to last week. For example, the 1 - month closing price dropped from 5496 yuan/ton to 5412 yuan/ton. - Spot prices in major regions also decreased, such as the price of Nanning white sugar dropping from 5800 yuan/ton to 5790 yuan/ton. - The basis increased slightly as the futures price decline was greater than the spot price decline. As of October 17, the basis of Zhengzhou sugar 01 was 378 yuan/ton. [8] 白糖主要市场价格及价差 - The international raw sugar futures price fluctuated downward this week due to the expected oversupply. - Zhengzhou sugar followed the raw sugar price to decline and then rebounded slightly, with the center of gravity moving down. - The spot price of white sugar first stabilized and then declined. After the National Day holiday, the short - term replenishment demand ended, and the price was under pressure due to the increasing supply of beet sugar. [13][14] 国际供给 巴西生产情况 - As of the second half of September in the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in Brazil reached 33.524 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.84%. The production is expected to increase to about 41 million tons. - In the second half of September, the sugar production in the central - southern region was 3.137 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 10.76%), and the ethanol production was 2.213 billion liters (a year - on - year decrease of 1.50%). - As of October 10, the ethanol - to - gasoline ratio in Brazil was 67.69%, and the ethanol - converted sugar price was about 14.11 cents/pound, with the raw sugar having an advantage of about 1.90 cents/pound over the ethanol - converted sugar. - As of September 30, the sugar inventory in Brazil was 11.00674 million tons, close to the level of the same period last year. [39][46][51] 印度及泰国生产情况 - India's 2025/26 crushing season is expected to have a recovery - type increase in production. The ISMA estimates that the total sugar production will increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons. - Thailand's 2024/25 crushing season's sugar production exceeded 10 million tons. In the 2025/26 crushing season, the production is expected to continue to increase slightly due to factors such as favorable weather and government support. [65][68] 全球生产信息 - The global sugar supply in the 2024/25 crushing season was in a loose pattern with marginal tightening. In the 2025/26 crushing season, the supply is expected to turn loose, with different institutions having different forecasts, such as Czarnikov predicting a supply surplus of 7.45 million tons. [73] 国内供给 - In the 2025/26 crushing season, the production is expected to increase to around 11.5 million tons. Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have started the sugar - making process. - From January to August 2025, China imported 2.0121 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 121,000 tons, an increase of 4.86%. - The import of syrup and premixed powder is under control, but the import of products under the 2106.906 tax code still shows a significant year - on - year increase. [81][97][119] 销售情况 - There are two traditional peak demand seasons for white sugar in a year: the summer cold drink season and the Spring Festival stocking season. - After the National Day holiday, there was a short - term replenishment demand, but most traders and terminal enterprises still adopted a "buy - as - you - go" strategy due to the continuous decline in sugar prices, and the market digestion speed was slow. [129] 库存情况 - As the new crushing season of beet sugar begins and the domestic sugar sales progress is average, the inventory is expected to gradually increase after November. - As of the end of September 2025, the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 442,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 170,700 tons; in Yunnan, as of the end of August, the industrial inventory was 204,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 92,900 tons. [136] CFTC持仓 - Not elaborated on in terms of specific analysis in the given content, only presenting relevant data charts of ICE11 - number sugar positions.
白糖周报：巴西产量追平去年，糖价继续承压-20251020
Zhe Shang Qi Huo·2025-10-20 09:32