Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-20 09:46Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that next week's Shanghai lead futures market will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. After the release of positive news, the market may rise first and then fall. It is recommended to short - sell lead at high prices. The supply of lead is expected to increase, while the overall demand is still slowly recovering, and the inventory is rising, indicating a slowdown in demand [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,060 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,971.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The spread between the November - December contracts of Shanghai lead was - 30 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the open interest of Shanghai lead was 81,273 lots, up 1,372 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 685 lots, up 383 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 29,265 tons, down 2,817 tons [3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 41,701 tons, up 1,785 tons; the LME lead inventory was 250,400 tons, down 1,600 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,925 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,100 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [3]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 135 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 41.85 dollars/ton, up 3.14 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 83.56%, up 1.46 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.73 tons, up 0.02 tons [3]. - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,396 yuan, down 75 yuan; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 380 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The global lead mine output was 379.9 thousand tons, down 16 thousand tons; the lead ore import volume was 13.48 tons, up 1.27 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead was 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the export volume of refined lead was 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons [3]. - The average market price of waste batteries was 9,987.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 49,680 thousand units, up 1,925 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries was 19,675 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [3]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 1,938.29 points, down 114.72 points; the monthly automobile production was 275.24 tons, up 24.24 tons [3]. - The monthly production of new energy vehicles was 133.3 tons, up 15.7 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks [3]. - Trump said the US might not provide "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine and that his meeting with Putin would be a "bilateral meeting" [3]. - The head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund said Russia and the US had started discussing the construction of a Bering Strait tunnel [3]. - Fed's Musalem said he might support another rate - cut if employment faced more risks and inflation was under control [3]. - The US Treasury Department was reported to have bought Argentine pesos at a non - official exchange rate [3]. - The US Secretary of State discussed critical mineral cooperation with the Liberian Foreign Minister [3]. - The US House of Representatives was to go on recess [3]. 3.7 View Summary - On the supply side, the processing fee of lead concentrate has stabilized, but the production rhythm of some smelters has changed greatly. Some smelters have maintenance plans, so the increase in primary lead output is limited in the short term [3]. - The supply of waste batteries is still tight, but the profit of recycled lead has recovered. Enterprises that stopped production for maintenance in Anhui have resumed production in October, and the supply of recycled lead and overall lead may increase next week [3]. - On the demand side, downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, and the market trading is inactive. The seasonal peak season effect of lead - acid batteries has not fully emerged, but the energy - storage demand in emerging fields is good, and overall demand is slowly recovering [3]. - The lead inventory at home and abroad is rising, indicating a slowdown in demand. Next week, the Shanghai lead futures are expected to oscillate at a high level, and lead prices are recommended to be short - sold at high prices [3].