Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-20 09:45Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's concern has eased as the decline in the sugar - making ratio is significant, but the raw sugar price has limited rebound due to overall production increase. Domestic spot prices are continuously falling, with average trading volume, and downstream demand is in seasonal decline. It is expected that the sugar sales progress will slow down later. However, the futures price is gradually supported by cost, and the price is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5428 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 426415 hands (a decrease of 15033 hands), the number of warehouse receipts is 8407 (a decrease of 11), the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 75785 hands, and the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4254 yuan/ton (a decrease of 66 yuan/ton) [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar (outside quota, 50% tariff) is 5396 yuan/ton (a decrease of 87 yuan/ton), the estimated import price of Thai sugar (outside quota, 50% tariff) is 5470 yuan/ton, the spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5740 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton), the spot price in Nanning is 5790 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Liuzhou is 5800 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton) [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares (a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares), the national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The national sugar sales rate is 72.69% (an increase of 7.47 percentage points), the monthly sugar import volume is 550000 tons (a decrease of 280000 tons), the total Brazilian sugar exports are 324.58 million tons (an increase of 96 million tons), the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1324 yuan/ton, and the price difference (outside quota, 50% tariff) is 239 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 45.41 million tons (an increase of 4.41 million tons), and the monthly output of soft drinks is 1775.8 million tons (a decrease of 20.8 million tons) [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.07% (a decrease of 0.41 percentage points), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.07% (a decrease of 0.41 percentage points), the 20 - day historical volatility is 8.01% (a decrease of 0.17 percentage points), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.15% (a decrease of 0.04 percentage points) [2]. Industry News - In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550000 tons, a decrease of about 280000 tons from the previous month and a 35.8% increase year - on - year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 million tons, a 270000 - ton or 9.4% increase year - on - year. In the second half of September 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 40.86 million tons of sugar - cane, a 5.18% year - on - year increase, produced 3.14 million tons of sugar, a 10.76% year - on - year increase, and the sugar - making ratio was 51.17%, higher than 47.73% in the same period of the previous year [2].