瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is still restricted, with less pressure on the supply side. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is decreasing due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the sufficient supply of soybeans and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The market is in a bearish trend overall, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode in the fourth quarter, which supports its price. But the sufficient supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep the demand for rapeseed oil mainly at a rigid level. The rapeseed oil price has adjusted at a high level recently, and short - term observation is recommended. Attention should also be paid to the China - Canada trade policy [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9918 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2350 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan; the closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 631 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.5 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5280 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 370 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 45 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 278,716 lots, down 2,655 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal is 363,641 lots, down 4,227 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 13,361 lots, up 1,764 lots; the net long position of rapeseed meal is - 82,063 lots, up 11,892 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 7,590 pieces, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal is 7,702 pieces, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,430 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,600 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,900 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Average prices: The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,213.75 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7,502.74 yuan/ton, up 4.63 yuan [2]. - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 4.06, down 0.03; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 202 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 80 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,520 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 820 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 470 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Output forecast: The annual forecast output of rapeseed is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged; the forecast annual output of global rapeseed is not provided with a specific change [2]. - Import volume: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 24.66 tons, up 7.06 tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 14 tons, up 1 ton; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 18.31 tons, down 8.72 tons [2]. - Pressing profit: The imported rapeseed crushing profit is 749 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 5 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 3.2%, down 0.53 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 6 tons, down 1.67 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.78 tons, down 0.37 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 50.9 tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 27.9 tons, down 0.69 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 2.8 tons, down 0.75 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 22.5 tons, up 1.4 tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil delivery volume is 0.22 tons, down 2.96 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal delivery volume is 1.09 tons, down 1.32 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Output: The monthly output of feed is 2,927.2 tons, up 99.9 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 450.6 tons, up 30 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.22%, up 1.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 21.2%, up 1.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.92%, down 0.22 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 13.92%, down 0.21 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 25.22%, up 1.23 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 24.94%, up 0.31 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 16.82%, up 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.72%, down 0.23 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On October 17 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, and the rapeseed harvest in the Canadian prairies was nearly completed. The November rapeseed futures contract fell 1.40 Canadian dollars, and the most actively traded January rapeseed futures contract fell 1.20 Canadian dollars [2]. - Due to favorable weather conditions, the harvest in the US Midwest is advancing actively. The expected high - yield of US soybeans restricts its market price. The China - US trade relationship has not improved significantly, and China has not ordered US soybeans for the current year, so the export pressure of US soybeans remains. However, the crushing volume of US soybeans has increased significantly, supporting the price of US soybeans. The US government is in a shutdown state, with a lack of data and a cautious market [2]. - The Indonesia government plans to increase biodiesel to B50 in the second half of next year, and the biodiesel blending volume in the US in September increased month - on - month, which is beneficial to the international oil market [2].