Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-20 09:41Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term SH2601 is expected to fluctuate widely, with the daily range expected to be around 2300 - 2420. After the National Day, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories resumed the destocking trend, but the inventory pressure was still high. The profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was repaired last week. This week, the supply of caustic soda is expected to increase. The short - term caustic soda consumption demand of downstream industries is not expected to shrink significantly, but there are co - existing expectations of new alumina capacity launch and cost - based production cuts of existing units in the fourth quarter. If alumina production cuts are implemented in the future, the impact will be greater than the replenishment demand of new units. The pressure of caustic soda warehouse receipts has eased [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2380 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the contract closing prices of caustic soda in January and May were 2380 yuan/ton and 2482 yuan/ton respectively, both up 36 yuan. The net position of the top 20 futures was - 1774 lots, up 15647 lots. The main contract's open interest was 122212 lots, down 14026 lots, and the trading volume was 298867 lots, down 119034 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2563.5 yuan/ton, down 30.25 yuan. The basis of caustic soda was 183 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 644 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 50.5 yuan/ton, up 50.5 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2835 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 10th to 16th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6%. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of alumina decreased by 0.10% week - on - week to 86.22%, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased by 1.02% week - on - week to 88.61%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 0.63% week - on - week to 67.26%. As of October 16th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 403,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 4.25% and a year - on - year increase of 13.83%. From October 10th to 16th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali industry was 394 yuan/ton [2].