每日核心期货品种分析-20251020

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance on October 20th, with some rising and others falling. Different commodities have different market trends and influencing factors, and overall, the market is affected by a combination of macro - economic, supply - demand, and geopolitical factors [5]. - For most commodities, market uncertainties such as upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations, major domestic conferences, and geopolitical situations will impact their prices, and in some cases, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines and observe [10][13][14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - Copper: The price of copper is affected by factors such as overseas interest rate cuts, supply disruptions at mines, and high domestic prices being resisted. It is expected to have a strong performance in the short - term, with the focus on the impact of major domestic conferences on market sentiment [8][10]. - Silver: The main contract of Shanghai silver fell nearly 4% on October 20th [5]. - Gold: The main contract of Shanghai gold (2512) had a capital outflow of 5.713 billion yuan as of October 20, 15:23 [6]. - PVC: The supply is relatively high, the downstream recovery is limited, the export expectation is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and observe [19]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Coking coal prices rose, with domestic mine production increasing and demand from coking enterprises weakening. The market is affected by factors such as steel mill profits and coke price increases [20][21]. Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: It shows a pattern of tight supply and demand, with prices rising. The supply has growth potential, and downstream demand is strong during the peak season [11]. - Crude Oil: The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is increasing, demand is weakening, and geopolitical risks are decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium to long - term, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines and observe [12][13]. - Asphalt: The supply is at a high level, demand is affected by factors such as weather and funds, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines and observe due to potential oil price fluctuations [14]. - PP: The downstream start - up rate is low, supply is increasing, and demand during the peak season is less than expected. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [15][16]. - Plastic: The start - up rate is at a medium level, downstream demand during the peak season is less than expected, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [17]. - Urea: The cost is rising, demand is weakening as autumn fertilizers end, and the market is expected to stabilize after a decline [22]. Agricultural Products - Pork: The main contract of live pigs rose nearly 3% on October 20th [5]. - Apples: The main contract of apples rose more than 2% on October 20th [5]. - Soybeans: The main contract of soybeans (No. 1) rose more than 1% on October 20th [5]. Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all rose on October 20th [5][6]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all fell on October 20th [6].