Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-20 09:39Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply scale of the polysilicon industry remains large, with partial corporate production cuts falling short of expectations, leading to continued accumulation of social inventory and increasing supply - side pressure [2]. - The demand side is relatively weak, with sluggish demand in the downstream photovoltaic industry chain, reduced demand for polysilicon from silicon wafers, and narrowing industry gross margins [2]. - The European market has high inventory, suppressing import demand, while the US tariff policy's loosening only drives the growth of energy - storage system exports, which cannot fully offset the negative impact of the European market. However, emerging markets show a surge in demand, buffering the decline in the demand side [2]. - If supply pressure continues to increase, high inventory will exert significant downward pressure on prices. Polysilicon prices have started to decline, mainly affected by market sentiment. With some factories planning to stop production in the dry season, the market sentiment's feedback needs to be observed. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 50,340 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the main position volume is 56,806 lots, down 11,421 lots. The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,490 yuan, up 35 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 41,775 yuan/ton, down 2,135 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 175 yuan/ton, down 1,710 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.53 US dollars/kg, down 0.01 US dollars. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense, and re - feed polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,565 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; the spot price is 9,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons, and the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,006 tons, down 164 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars; the monthly average import price is 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 69.857 million kilowatts, up 3.475 million kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 149,022,600 units, up 38,589,900 units; the monthly import volume is 21,440,200 units, up 6,914,600 units, and the monthly average import price is 0.25 US dollars/unit, down 0.05 US dollars. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged [2]. Industry News - Affected by recent meetings and the electricity price during the wet/dry season, some polysilicon bases in Southwest China have gradually reduced raw - material input and are expected to completely stop production from late October to early November, with the involved production capacity being about 320,000 tons/year [2]. - The Ministry of Finance and other three departments have adjusted the value - added tax policy for wind power generation and other industries [2].