Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-20 09:39Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term L2601 is expected to show a volatile trend. Technically, attention should be paid to the previous low support around 6855 and the 10 - day moving average pressure around 6994 [2]. - The overall inventory pressure is not significant, with obvious accumulation in production enterprise inventory and a narrow decline in social inventory [2]. - Oil - made LLDPE cost decreases with the decline of international oil prices, and oil - made profits are restored; coal - made cost decreases slightly, and losses deepen [2]. - PE production and capacity utilization are expected to rise slightly this week. In October, the supply pressure in the industry is relatively high due to fewer new shutdown devices and the upcoming new production capacity [2]. - The downstream shed film is in the peak season, with orders and operating rates gradually rising to the annual high; the new orders for packaging film are limited, and the devices are expected to operate stably [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing prices of polyethylene futures main contracts and different - month contracts increased. The 1 - 5 spread decreased. The trading volume increased, while the open interest decreased. The long and short positions of the top 20 futures decreased, and the net long position decreased [2]. - For example, the closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 6879 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 42, down 9 [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China increased slightly, while that in East China decreased slightly. The basis increased [2]. - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6996.09 yuan/ton, up 0.43 yuan/ton; in East China, it was 7145.95 yuan/ton, down 4.52 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The prices of naphtha and ethylene in the upstream decreased [2]. - The FOB middle - price of naphtha in Singapore was 58.33 US dollars/barrel, down 0.99 US dollars; the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan was 537 US dollars/ton, down 8.5 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate decreased [2]. - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 81.76%, down 2.19% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of different polyethylene downstream products varied. The operating rate of packaging film decreased slightly, that of pipes increased slightly, and that of agricultural film increased significantly [2]. - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging film was 52.19%, down 0.7%; that of pipes was 32%, up 0.33%; that of agricultural film was 42.89%, up 7.28% [2]. Option Market - The historical and implied volatilities of polyethylene options decreased [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 8.45%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options decreased [2]. Industry News - From October 10th to 16th, PE production decreased by 2.05% to 65.06 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.19% to 81.76%. The average operating rate of Chinese polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.55%, and the overall operating rate of agricultural film increased by 7.3% [2]. - As of October 15th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 52.95 tons, up 8.37%; as of October 17th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 54.54 tons, down 0.05% [2]. - From October 11th to 17th, the cost of oil - made LLDPE decreased by 3.34% to 7166 yuan/ton, and the oil - made profit increased by 140.29 yuan/ton to - 80.71 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - made LLDPE decreased by 0.86% to 6507 yuan/ton, and the coal - made profit decreased by 76.15 yuan/ton to 494.14 yuan/ton [2].