Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract is in a weak state. The market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure, and under a weak macro - expectation, the contract remains weak. The contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Monday, with the price closing 0.07% lower at 14810 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month - spread premium narrowing to 5 yuan/ton [6]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract is also in a weak state. The domestic methanol market is in a stage of oversupply and weak demand. The contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Monday, with the price closing 1.00% lower at 2266 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 month - spread discount widening to 26 yuan/ton [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, rebounding but being blocked, and slightly closing lower on Monday, with the price closing 0.86% lower at 435.8 yuan/barrel. Systemic risks have occurred due to the continuous shutdown of the US federal government and Trump's resumption of the trade tariff war. At the same time, OPEC+ oil - producing countries continue to increase production, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil is being reversed due to the possible end of the Palestine - Israel conflict in the Middle East [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 45.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons (0.11%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.02% to 7.08 million tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.49% to 38.52 million tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 3.74 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.40 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 4.11 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 4.91 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' capacity utilization rates have returned to pre - holiday levels, but the overall shipment performance varies [9]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The new order index of logistics enterprises was 53.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, remaining in a high - prosperity range above 52% for four consecutive months. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9% [10]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market was about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.38%, a week - on - week increase of 4.00%, a month - on - month increase of 4.99%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol production was 1.9837 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64,400 tons, and a significant increase of 118,600 tons compared to the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.95%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.03%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%; the acetic acid operating rate was 71.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 10.04%; the MTBE operating rate was 54.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.00%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 88.36%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.39 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.48% [11]. - As of October 17, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 252 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 106 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.2589 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70,900 tons, and a significant increase of 324,600 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the week of October 16, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 359,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and a significant decrease of 109,700 tons compared to the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 418, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a decrease of 83 compared to the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.7 million barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 1.36 million barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.524 million barrels and a slight year - on - year increase of 3.235 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.001 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 703,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 407.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 760,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 85.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.7 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year decrease of 2.0 percentage points [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts (a 15.65% decrease) compared to the August average. As of October 17, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 110,311 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 31,345 contracts and a significant decrease of 106,044 contracts (a 49.01% decrease) compared to the September average [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,250 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 14,810 yuan/ton | + 115 yuan/ton | - 560 yuan/ton | - 115 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,290 yuan/ton | + 0 yuan/ton | 2,266 yuan/ton | - 6 yuan/ton | + 24 yuan/ton | + 6 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 421.2 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 435.8 yuan/barrel | + 0.8 yuan/barrel | - 14.6 yuan/barrel | + 0.7 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Related charts include rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][19]. - Methanol: Related charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 month - spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35]. - Crude Oil: Related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [44][46][48].
偏空氛围压制，能化震荡偏弱：橡胶甲醇原油
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-10-20 09:38