Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-20 09:48Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The supply of styrene is expected to decline slightly due to the expanded impact of previously shut - down plants, with no new maintenance or restarting plants this week [2]. - There is a mismatch in the production schedules between upstream and downstream, which may deepen the supply - demand contradiction as 1.2 million tons of styrene production capacity is planned to be put into operation in October, while the downstream EPS, PS, ABS production capacity is concentrated from November to December [2]. - The terminal demand is weak, and the growth space of styrene demand may be limited due to high inventory and low profit in some downstream sectors [2]. - The cost of non - integrated styrene has decreased, and the loss has deepened. The cost support is gradually strengthening as the profit of integrated plants is low [2]. - Although the supply - demand situation of styrene is weak, the valuation of the November contract is low, and there is an expectation of positive macro - policies in late October, so the downward space in the future may be limited [2]. - Technically, the short - term downward trend of EB2511 may continue, but the decline space may be limited as the RSI indicators show the price is in the oversold range [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The trading volume of the active styrene futures contract is 453,930, and the closing price of the November contract is 6,365 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 holders decreased by 9,570 hands to 263,109 hands [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 100 to 35,433 hands [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 6,900 yuan/ton, and the FOB South Korea intermediate price is 793 US dollars/ton [2]. - The mainstream prices in different regions have declined to varying degrees, such as the Northeast region at 803 yuan/ton, the South China region at 6,610 yuan/ton, and the North China region at 6,515 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The prices of ethylene and pure benzene in different regions have declined, such as the CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene at 781 US dollars/ton, and the spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf at 655 US cents/gallon [2]. Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate decreased by 1.73% to 71.88%, and the national inventory decreased by 443 tons to 193,420 tons [2]. - The inventory in the East China main port decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons, and the trade inventory increased by 0.51 million tons to 12.15 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of downstream products such as EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber have changed to varying degrees, with the operating rate of EPS at 21.79% and that of ABS at 73.1% [2]. Industry News - From October 10th to 16th, styrene production decreased by 2.33% to 339,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.73% to 71.88% [2]. - The downstream operating rate of styrene mainly increased, and the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, ABS increased by 13.93% to 273,200 tons [2]. - As of October 16th, the factory inventory of styrene decreased by 0.23% to 193,400 tons, and the East China port inventory decreased by 2.67% to 196,500 tons, and the South China port inventory decreased by 11.59% to 30,500 tons [2]. - As of October 16th, the non - integrated cost of styrene decreased to 7,128 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased to - 588 yuan/ton [2].