Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-20 09:47Report Highlights 1) Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core View The egg market currently faces a situation of high production capacity, with a large number of laying hens in stock and no excessive culling of old hens. After the festival, consumer demand has seasonally declined, and the loose supply - demand situation is expected to continue, which suppresses the near - month contracts. The post - festival decline in spot prices also affects the performance of the futures market. However, continuous losses have reduced the enthusiasm for restocking, which is beneficial to long - term prices. In general, due to the high production capacity pressure and the decline in spot prices, a short - term strategy of selling high for near - month contracts is recommended. The far - month contracts may perform better as they are supported by the logic of production capacity reduction [2]. 3) Summary by Directory a. Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 2770 yuan/500 kilograms, down 35 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 19763 lots, an increase of 4157 lots - The egg futures spread between January and May contracts is - 181 yuan/500 kilograms, down 57 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract is 161059 lots, a decrease of 10183 lots - The registered warehouse receipt volume is 15 lots, a decrease of 15 lots [2] b. Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 2.93 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 164 yuan/500 kilograms, down 39 yuan [2] c. Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 114.4 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 1.22; the national culled laying hen index is 93.61 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 5.59 - The average price of egg - laying chicken chicks in the main production areas is 2.6 yuan/chick, unchanged; the national new - born chick index is 73.35 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 5.05 - The average price of egg - laying chicken feed is 2.75 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan; the breeding profit per egg - laying chicken is - 0.46 yuan, down 0.06 yuan - The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 8.64 yuan/kg, down 0.28 yuan; the average age of culled chickens nationwide is 510 days, a decrease of 2 days [2] d. Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.72 yuan/kg, down 0.31 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.09 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan - The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.57 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.1 days, a decrease of 0.24 days - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.45 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13121.03 tons, an increase of 264.92 tons [2] e. Downstream Situation The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7179 tons, a decrease of 442 tons [2] f. Industry News The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 5.79 yuan/kg, down 0.18 yuan from the previous day; in Hebei, it is 5.45 yuan/kg, down 0.21 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 6.40 yuan/kg, down 0.20 yuan; in Beijing, it is 6.16 yuan/kg, down 0.20 yuan [2]